Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.26%
Fair Odds 3.3
Draw
22.87%
Fair Odds 4.37
Away Win
46.87%
Fair Odds 2.13
Most Likely Score
1 - 2
Probability 8.71% Fair Odds 11.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.3 —
Draw 4.37 —
Away Win 2.13 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-2 8.71% 11.48
2 1-1 8.67% 11.54
3 2-2 7.01% 14.26
4 2-1 6.98% 14.33
5 1-3 5.84% 17.13
6 0-2 5.41% 18.48
7 0-1 5.38% 18.58
8 2-3 4.7% 21.29
9 1-0 4.31% 23.19
10 3-2 3.76% 26.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.68%
37.34
5.38%
18.58
5.41%
18.48
3.62%
27.59
1.82%
54.9
0.73%
136.57
1
4.31%
23.19
8.67%
11.54
8.71%
11.48
5.84%
17.13
2.93%
34.1
1.18%
84.82
2
3.47%
28.81
6.98%
14.33
7.01%
14.26
4.7%
21.29
2.36%
42.36
0.95%
105.37
3
1.86%
53.68
3.74%
26.71
3.76%
26.57
2.52%
39.66
1.27%
78.93
0.51%
196.35
4
0.75%
133.37
1.51%
66.35
1.51%
66.02
1.01%
98.54
0.51%
196.12
0.21%
487.8
5
0.24%
414.25
0.49%
206.06
0.49%
205.04
0.33%
306.0
0.16%
609.01
0.07%
1515.15
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.3% · Fair: 43.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.6% 13.4%
1.5 59.67% 40.33%
2.5 32.6% 67.4%
3.5 14.47% 85.53%
4.5 5.36% 94.64%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.68% 37.34
1 9.70% 10.31
2 17.55% 5.70
3 21.18% 4.72
4 19.16% 5.22
5+ 29.74% 3.36
Over 2.5 70.08% Under 2.5 29.92%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.26%
Draw 22.87%
Away Win 46.87%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.08%
Under 2.5 29.92%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.29%
No 30.71%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.88% 17.01 9.11% 10.98 85.01% 1.18
-1.5 14.98% 6.67 — 85.01% 1.18
-1.0 14.98% 6.67 16.25% 6.15 68.76% 1.45
-0.5 31.24% 3.2 — 68.76% 1.45
0 (PK) 31.24% 3.2 21.46% 4.66 47.3% 2.11
+0.5 52.7% 1.9 — 47.3% 2.11
+1.0 52.7% 1.9 20.29% 4.93 27.02% 3.7
+1.5 72.98% 1.37 — 27.02% 3.7
+2.0 72.98% 1.37 14.19% 7.05 12.82% 7.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.