Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.66%
Fair Odds 4.41
Draw
23.01%
Fair Odds 4.35
Away Win
54.33%
Fair Odds 1.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.71% Fair Odds 10.3

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.41 —
Draw 4.35 —
Away Win 1.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.71% 10.3
2 1-2 9.71% 10.3
3 0-1 7.83% 12.77
4 0-2 7.83% 12.77
5 1-3 6.48% 15.44
6 2-1 6.02% 16.61
7 2-2 6.02% 16.61
8 0-3 5.22% 19.15
9 1-0 4.86% 20.59
10 2-3 4.01% 24.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.92%
25.53
7.83%
12.77
7.83%
12.77
5.22%
19.15
2.61%
38.3
1.04%
95.75
1
4.86%
20.59
9.71%
10.3
9.71%
10.3
6.48%
15.44
3.24%
30.89
1.29%
77.22
2
3.01%
33.21
6.02%
16.61
6.02%
16.61
4.01%
24.91
2.01%
49.82
0.8%
124.55
3
1.24%
80.35
2.49%
40.18
2.49%
40.18
1.66%
60.26
0.83%
120.53
0.33%
301.3
4
0.39%
259.2
0.77%
129.6
0.77%
129.6
0.51%
194.4
0.26%
388.8
0.1%
971.82
5
0.1%
1044.93
0.19%
522.47
0.19%
522.47
0.13%
783.7
0.06%
1567.4
0.03%
3921.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.83% · Fair: 54.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.47% 13.53%
1.5 59.4% 40.6%
2.5 32.33% 67.67%
3.5 14.29% 85.71%
4.5 5.26% 94.73%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.92% 25.53
1 12.69% 7.88
2 20.56% 4.86
3 22.20% 4.50
4 17.98% 5.56
5+ 22.65% 4.41
Over 2.5 62.84% Under 2.5 37.16%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 22.66%
Draw 23.01%
Away Win 54.33%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.84%
Under 2.5 37.16%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.44%
No 38.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.03% 32.95 6.41% 15.59 90.55% 1.1
-1.5 9.45% 10.58 — 90.55% 1.1
-1.0 9.45% 10.58 13.95% 7.17 76.6% 1.31
-0.5 23.4% 4.27 — 76.6% 1.31
0 (PK) 23.4% 4.27 21.59% 4.63 55.01% 1.82
+0.5 44.99% 2.22 — 55.01% 1.82
+1.0 44.99% 2.22 22.5% 4.44 32.5% 3.08
+1.5 67.5% 1.48 — 32.5% 3.08
+2.0 67.5% 1.48 16.68% 5.99 15.82% 6.32

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.