Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.61%
Fair Odds 2.66
Draw
22.26%
Fair Odds 4.49
Away Win
40.13%
Fair Odds 2.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 7.55% Fair Odds 13.25

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.66 —
Draw 4.49 —
Away Win 2.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 7.55% 13.25
2 1-2 7.51% 13.32
3 2-1 7.36% 13.59
4 2-2 7.32% 13.66
5 1-3 4.98% 20.08
6 2-3 4.86% 20.59
7 3-1 4.78% 20.91
8 3-2 4.76% 21.01
9 0-1 3.87% 25.84
10 0-2 3.85% 25.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.94%
51.42
3.87%
25.84
3.85%
25.97
2.55%
39.15
1.27%
78.69
0.51%
197.71
1
3.79%
26.37
7.55%
13.25
7.51%
13.32
4.98%
20.08
2.48%
40.35
0.99%
101.39
2
3.7%
27.04
7.36%
13.59
7.32%
13.66
4.86%
20.59
2.42%
41.39
0.96%
103.99
3
2.4%
41.61
4.78%
20.91
4.76%
21.01
3.16%
31.68
1.57%
63.67
0.63%
159.97
4
1.17%
85.35
2.33%
42.89
2.32%
43.1
1.54%
64.98
0.77%
130.62
0.3%
328.19
5
0.46%
218.82
0.91%
109.97
0.9%
110.52
0.6%
166.61
0.3%
334.9
0.12%
841.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.08% · Fair: 32.49
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.33% 13.67%
1.5 59.13% 40.87%
2.5 32.06% 67.94%
3.5 14.11% 85.89%
4.5 5.17% 94.82%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 1.94% 51.42
1 7.66% 13.05
2 15.10% 6.62
3 19.83% 5.04
4 19.53% 5.12
5+ 35.94% 2.78
Over 2.5 75.3% Under 2.5 24.7%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.61%
Draw 22.26%
Away Win 40.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 75.3%
Under 2.5 24.7%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 74.05%
No 25.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.49% 10.54 11.51% 8.69 79.0% 1.27
-1.5 21.0% 4.76 — 79.0% 1.27
-1.0 21.0% 4.76 17.79% 5.62 61.21% 1.63
-0.5 38.79% 2.58 — 61.21% 1.63
0 (PK) 38.79% 2.58 20.87% 4.79 40.34% 2.48
+0.5 59.66% 1.68 — 40.34% 2.48
+1.0 59.66% 1.68 18.15% 5.51 22.19% 4.51
+1.5 77.81% 1.29 — 22.19% 4.51
+2.0 77.81% 1.29 11.99% 8.34 10.2% 9.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.