Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.54%
Fair Odds 5.39
Draw
22.84%
Fair Odds 4.38
Away Win
58.62%
Fair Odds 1.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.05% Fair Odds 9.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.39 —
Draw 4.38 —
Away Win 1.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.05% 9.95
2 1-2 9.95% 10.05
3 0-1 9.76% 10.25
4 0-2 9.66% 10.35
5 1-3 6.57% 15.22
6 0-3 6.38% 15.68
7 2-1 5.18% 19.32
8 2-2 5.13% 19.51
9 1-0 5.08% 19.7
10 0-0 4.93% 20.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
9.76%
10.25
9.66%
10.35
6.38%
15.68
3.16%
31.68
1.25%
80.0
1
5.08%
19.7
10.05%
9.95
9.95%
10.05
6.57%
15.22
3.25%
30.76
1.29%
77.67
2
2.61%
38.25
5.18%
19.32
5.13%
19.51
3.38%
29.56
1.67%
59.72
0.66%
150.81
3
0.9%
111.4
1.78%
56.26
1.76%
56.83
1.16%
86.1
0.57%
173.94
0.23%
439.17
4
0.23%
432.53
0.46%
218.48
0.45%
220.7
0.3%
334.34
0.15%
675.68
0.06%
1706.48
5
0.05%
2100.84
0.09%
1060.45
0.09%
1071.81
0.06%
1623.38
0.03%
3278.69
0.01%
8264.46
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.65% · Fair: 60.5
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.19% 13.81%
1.5 58.85% 41.14%
2.5 31.79% 68.21%
3.5 13.93% 86.07%
4.5 5.09% 94.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.54%
Draw 22.84%
Away Win 58.62%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.42%
No 44.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.88% 53.13 4.91% 20.36 93.2% 1.07
-1.5 6.79% 14.72 — 93.2% 1.07
-1.0 6.79% 14.72 12.35% 8.1 80.86% 1.24
-0.5 19.14% 5.22 — 80.86% 1.24
0 (PK) 19.14% 5.22 21.43% 4.67 59.43% 1.68
+0.5 40.57% 2.46 — 59.43% 1.68
+1.0 40.57% 2.46 23.73% 4.21 35.7% 2.8
+1.5 64.3% 1.56 — 35.7% 2.8
+2.0 64.3% 1.56 18.15% 5.51 17.54% 5.7

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.