Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.28%
Fair Odds 2.83
Draw
22.67%
Fair Odds 4.41
Away Win
42.05%
Fair Odds 2.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.1% Fair Odds 12.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.83 —
Draw 4.41 —
Away Win 2.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.1% 12.34
2 1-2 7.98% 12.53
3 2-1 7.37% 13.56
4 2-2 7.26% 13.77
5 1-3 5.24% 19.08
6 2-3 4.77% 20.97
7 3-1 4.47% 22.36
8 0-1 4.45% 22.46
9 3-2 4.41% 22.7
10 0-2 4.38% 22.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.26%
44.26
4.45%
22.46
4.38%
22.81
2.88%
34.73
1.42%
70.52
0.56%
178.99
1
4.11%
24.32
8.1%
12.34
7.98%
12.53
5.24%
19.08
2.58%
38.75
1.02%
98.35
2
3.74%
26.72
7.37%
13.56
7.26%
13.77
4.77%
20.97
2.35%
42.58
0.93%
108.07
3
2.27%
44.05
4.47%
22.36
4.41%
22.7
2.89%
34.57
1.42%
70.19
0.56%
178.13
4
1.03%
96.81
2.04%
49.14
2.0%
49.89
1.32%
75.97
0.65%
154.25
0.26%
391.54
5
0.38%
265.96
0.74%
135.01
0.73%
137.06
0.48%
208.72
0.24%
423.73
0.09%
1075.27
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.62% · Fair: 38.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.8% 16.2%
1.5 54.31% 45.69%
2.5 27.47% 72.53%
3.5 11.19% 88.81%
4.5 3.79% 96.21%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 86.05% 13.95%
1.5 58.58% 41.42%
2.5 31.52% 68.48%
3.5 13.75% 86.25%
4.5 5.0% 95.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.26% 44.26
1 8.56% 11.68
2 16.23% 6.16
3 20.50% 4.88
4 19.43% 5.15
5+ 33.02% 3.03
Over 2.5 72.95% Under 2.5 27.05%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.28%
Draw 22.67%
Away Win 42.05%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.95%
Under 2.5 27.05%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.11%
No 27.89%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.15% 12.27 10.78% 9.28 81.07% 1.23
-1.5 18.93% 5.28 — 81.07% 1.23
-1.0 18.93% 5.28 17.47% 5.72 63.6% 1.57
-0.5 36.4% 2.75 — 63.6% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.4% 2.75 21.27% 4.7 42.33% 2.36
+0.5 57.67% 1.73 — 42.33% 2.36
+1.0 57.67% 1.73 18.91% 5.29 23.42% 4.27
+1.5 76.58% 1.31 — 23.42% 4.27
+2.0 76.58% 1.31 12.63% 7.92 10.79% 9.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.