Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.2%
Fair Odds 2.84
Draw
22.8%
Fair Odds 4.39
Away Win
42.0%
Fair Odds 2.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.25% Fair Odds 12.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.84 —
Draw 4.39 —
Away Win 2.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.25% 12.11
2 1-2 8.05% 12.42
3 2-1 7.43% 13.46
4 2-2 7.24% 13.81
5 1-3 5.23% 19.11
6 2-3 4.71% 21.24
7 0-1 4.59% 21.81
8 0-2 4.47% 22.36
9 3-1 4.46% 22.43
10 3-2 4.35% 23.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.35%
42.52
4.59%
21.81
4.47%
22.36
2.91%
34.41
1.42%
70.58
0.55%
180.96
1
4.23%
23.62
8.25%
12.11
8.05%
12.42
5.23%
19.11
2.55%
39.21
0.99%
100.54
2
3.81%
26.25
7.43%
13.46
7.24%
13.81
4.71%
21.24
2.3%
43.57
0.9%
111.71
3
2.29%
43.75
4.46%
22.43
4.35%
23.01
2.83%
35.4
1.38%
72.61
0.54%
186.19
4
1.03%
97.21
2.01%
49.85
1.96%
51.13
1.27%
78.66
0.62%
161.37
0.24%
413.74
5
0.37%
270.05
0.72%
138.48
0.7%
142.03
0.46%
218.48
0.22%
448.23
0.09%
1149.43
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.5% · Fair: 39.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.35% 42.52
1 8.82% 11.34
2 16.54% 6.05
3 20.67% 4.84
4 19.38% 5.16
5+ 32.24% 3.10
Over 2.5 72.29% Under 2.5 27.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.20%
Draw 22.80%
Away Win 42.00%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.29%
Under 2.5 27.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 71.59%
No 28.41%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.04% 12.44 10.75% 9.3 81.2% 1.23
-1.5 18.79% 5.32 — 81.2% 1.23
-1.0 18.79% 5.32 17.53% 5.7 63.67% 1.57
-0.5 36.33% 2.75 — 63.67% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.33% 2.75 21.39% 4.67 42.28% 2.37
+0.5 57.72% 1.73 — 42.28% 2.37
+1.0 57.72% 1.73 18.99% 5.27 23.29% 4.29
+1.5 76.71% 1.3 — 23.29% 4.29
+2.0 76.71% 1.3 12.62% 7.92 10.67% 9.37

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.