Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.32%
Fair Odds 3.8
Draw
23.42%
Fair Odds 4.27
Away Win
50.26%
Fair Odds 1.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.63% Fair Odds 10.38

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.8 —
Draw 4.27 —
Away Win 1.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.63% 10.38
2 1-2 9.39% 10.65
3 0-1 6.98% 14.33
4 0-2 6.81% 14.69
5 2-1 6.65% 15.05
6 2-2 6.48% 15.43
7 1-3 6.1% 16.38
8 1-0 4.94% 20.24
9 0-3 4.42% 22.61
10 2-3 4.21% 23.74
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.58%
27.94
6.98%
14.33
6.81%
14.69
4.42%
22.61
2.16%
46.37
0.84%
118.91
1
4.94%
20.24
9.63%
10.38
9.39%
10.65
6.1%
16.38
2.98%
33.6
1.16%
86.16
2
3.41%
29.34
6.65%
15.05
6.48%
15.43
4.21%
23.74
2.05%
48.7
0.8%
124.88
3
1.57%
63.78
3.06%
32.71
2.98%
33.55
1.94%
51.61
0.94%
105.88
0.37%
271.44
4
0.54%
184.88
1.05%
94.81
1.03%
97.24
0.67%
149.61
0.33%
306.84
0.13%
786.78
5
0.15%
669.79
0.29%
343.52
0.28%
352.36
0.18%
542.01
0.09%
1112.35
0.04%
2849.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.78% · Fair: 56.3
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.58% 27.94
1 11.92% 8.39
2 19.85% 5.04
3 22.03% 4.54
4 18.34% 5.45
5+ 24.29% 4.12
Over 2.5 64.66% Under 2.5 35.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.32%
Draw 23.42%
Away Win 50.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.66%
Under 2.5 35.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.19%
No 35.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.15% 24.09 7.7% 12.99 88.15% 1.13
-1.5 11.85% 8.44 — 88.15% 1.13
-1.0 11.85% 8.44 15.33% 6.52 72.81% 1.37
-0.5 27.19% 3.68 — 72.81% 1.37
0 (PK) 27.19% 3.68 21.99% 4.55 50.82% 1.97
+0.5 49.18% 2.03 — 50.82% 1.97
+1.0 49.18% 2.03 21.67% 4.62 29.16% 3.43
+1.5 70.84% 1.41 — 29.16% 3.43
+2.0 70.84% 1.41 15.38% 6.5 13.78% 7.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.