Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
19.95%
Fair Odds 5.01
Draw
23.22%
Fair Odds 4.31
Away Win
56.83%
Fair Odds 1.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.18% Fair Odds 9.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.01 —
Draw 4.31 —
Away Win 1.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.18% 9.83
2 1-2 9.92% 10.08
3 0-1 9.42% 10.61
4 0-2 9.19% 10.89
5 1-3 6.45% 15.51
6 0-3 5.97% 16.75
7 2-1 5.49% 18.2
8 2-2 5.36% 18.67
9 1-0 5.22% 19.16
10 0-0 4.83% 20.7
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
9.42%
10.61
9.19%
10.89
5.97%
16.75
2.91%
34.35
1.14%
88.09
1
5.22%
19.16
10.18%
9.83
9.92%
10.08
6.45%
15.51
3.14%
31.81
1.23%
81.57
2
2.82%
35.49
5.49%
18.2
5.36%
18.67
3.48%
28.72
1.7%
58.91
0.66%
151.03
3
1.01%
98.58
1.98%
50.55
1.93%
51.85
1.25%
79.77
0.61%
163.64
0.24%
419.64
4
0.27%
365.1
0.53%
187.23
0.52%
192.05
0.34%
295.42
0.17%
606.06
0.06%
1552.8
5
0.06%
1689.19
0.12%
866.55
0.11%
888.89
0.07%
1367.99
0.04%
2808.99
0.01%
7194.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.57% · Fair: 63.74
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 19.95%
Draw 23.22%
Away Win 56.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.64%
No 43.36%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.19% 45.73 5.4% 18.53 92.42% 1.08
-1.5 7.58% 13.19 — 92.42% 1.08
-1.0 7.58% 13.19 13.02% 7.68 79.4% 1.26
-0.5 20.6% 4.85 — 79.4% 1.26
0 (PK) 20.6% 4.85 21.8% 4.59 57.6% 1.74
+0.5 42.4% 2.36 — 57.6% 1.74
+1.0 42.4% 2.36 23.5% 4.25 34.1% 2.93
+1.5 65.9% 1.52 — 34.1% 2.93
+2.0 65.9% 1.52 17.59% 5.68 16.5% 6.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.