Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.9%
Fair Odds 5.29
Draw
23.12%
Fair Odds 4.33
Away Win
57.98%
Fair Odds 1.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.2% Fair Odds 9.8

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.29 —
Draw 4.33 —
Away Win 1.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.2% 9.8
2 1-2 9.95% 10.05
3 0-1 9.9% 10.1
4 0-2 9.66% 10.36
5 1-3 6.47% 15.47
6 0-3 6.28% 15.93
7 2-1 5.25% 19.03
8 1-0 5.23% 19.11
9 2-2 5.12% 19.52
10 0-0 5.08% 19.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.08%
19.69
9.9%
10.1
9.66%
10.36
6.28%
15.93
3.06%
32.68
1.19%
83.79
1
5.23%
19.11
10.2%
9.8
9.95%
10.05
6.47%
15.47
3.15%
31.73
1.23%
81.35
2
2.69%
37.12
5.25%
19.03
5.12%
19.52
3.33%
30.03
1.62%
61.61
0.63%
157.95
3
0.93%
108.1
1.8%
55.44
1.76%
56.86
1.14%
87.47
0.56%
179.44
0.22%
460.19
4
0.24%
419.82
0.46%
215.29
0.45%
220.8
0.29%
339.67
0.14%
696.86
0.06%
1785.71
5
0.05%
2036.66
0.1%
1044.93
0.09%
1071.81
0.06%
1650.17
0.03%
3378.38
0.01%
8695.65
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.55% · Fair: 64.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.08% 19.69
1 15.14% 6.61
2 22.55% 4.43
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.69% 5.99
5+ 18.14% 5.51
Over 2.5 57.23% Under 2.5 42.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.90%
Draw 23.12%
Away Win 57.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.23%
Under 2.5 42.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.15%
No 44.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.93% 51.91 5.02% 19.93 93.06% 1.07
-1.5 6.94% 14.4 — 93.06% 1.07
-1.0 6.94% 14.4 12.57% 7.96 80.49% 1.24
-0.5 19.51% 5.12 — 80.49% 1.24
0 (PK) 19.51% 5.12 21.7% 4.61 58.78% 1.7
+0.5 41.22% 2.43 — 58.78% 1.7
+1.0 41.22% 2.43 23.8% 4.2 34.98% 2.86
+1.5 65.01% 1.54 — 34.98% 2.86
+2.0 65.01% 1.54 17.98% 5.56 17.0% 5.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.