Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
16.19%
Fair Odds 6.17
Draw
22.77%
Fair Odds 4.39
Away Win
61.04%
Fair Odds 1.64
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 11.28% Fair Odds 8.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 6.17 —
Draw 4.39 —
Away Win 1.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 11.28% 8.87
2 0-2 11.0% 9.09
3 1-1 10.15% 9.85
4 1-2 9.9% 10.1
5 0-3 7.15% 13.99
6 1-3 6.43% 15.54
7 0-0 5.78% 17.29
8 1-0 5.21% 19.21
9 2-1 4.57% 21.89
10 2-2 4.45% 22.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.78%
17.29
11.28%
8.87
11.0%
9.09
7.15%
13.99
3.48%
28.7
1.36%
73.58
1
5.21%
19.21
10.15%
9.85
9.9%
10.1
6.43%
15.54
3.14%
31.88
1.22%
81.75
2
2.34%
42.69
4.57%
21.89
4.45%
22.45
2.9%
34.54
1.41%
70.85
0.55%
181.69
3
0.7%
142.29
1.37%
72.97
1.34%
74.84
0.87%
115.14
0.42%
236.18
0.17%
605.69
4
0.16%
632.51
0.31%
324.25
0.3%
332.56
0.2%
511.77
0.1%
1049.32
0.04%
2688.17
5
0.03%
3508.77
0.06%
1801.8
0.05%
1848.43
0.04%
2840.91
0.02%
5847.95
0.01%
14925.37
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.52% · Fair: 65.97
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.78% 17.29
1 16.49% 6.07
2 23.49% 4.26
3 22.32% 4.48
4 15.90% 6.29
5+ 16.02% 6.24
Over 2.5 54.24% Under 2.5 45.76%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 16.19%
Draw 22.77%
Away Win 61.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.24%
Under 2.5 45.76%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.9%
No 49.1%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.34% 74.77 4.05% 24.68 94.61% 1.06
-1.5 5.39% 18.56 — 94.61% 1.06
-1.0 5.39% 18.56 11.32% 8.83 83.29% 1.2
-0.5 16.71% 5.98 — 83.29% 1.2
0 (PK) 16.71% 5.98 21.36% 4.68 61.93% 1.61
+0.5 38.07% 2.63 — 61.93% 1.61
+1.0 38.07% 2.63 24.54% 4.08 37.39% 2.67
+1.5 62.61% 1.6 — 37.39% 2.67
+2.0 62.61% 1.6 19.02% 5.26 18.37% 5.44

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.