Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.51%
Fair Odds
2.47
Draw
22.25%
Fair Odds
4.49
Away Win
37.24%
Fair Odds
2.69
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 7.55%
Fair Odds 13.25
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.47 | — | |
| Draw | 4.49 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.69 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 7.55% | 13.25 |
| 2 | 2-1 | 7.55% | 13.25 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 7.32% | 13.66 |
| 4 | 2-2 | 7.32% | 13.66 |
| 5 | 3-1 | 5.03% | 19.88 |
| 6 | 3-2 | 4.88% | 20.49 |
| 7 | 1-3 | 4.73% | 21.13 |
| 8 | 2-3 | 4.73% | 21.13 |
| 9 | 1-0 | 3.89% | 25.71 |
| 10 | 2-0 | 3.89% | 25.71 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.94%
51.42
|
3.77%
26.5
|
3.66%
27.32
|
2.37%
42.25
|
1.15%
87.12
|
0.45%
224.52
|
| 1 |
3.89%
25.71
|
7.55%
13.25
|
7.32%
13.66
|
4.73%
21.13
|
2.3%
43.56
|
0.89%
112.27
|
| 2 |
3.89%
25.71
|
7.55%
13.25
|
7.32%
13.66
|
4.73%
21.13
|
2.3%
43.56
|
0.89%
112.27
|
| 3 |
2.59%
38.56
|
5.03%
19.88
|
4.88%
20.49
|
3.16%
31.69
|
1.53%
65.34
|
0.59%
168.41
|
| 4 |
1.3%
77.12
|
2.52%
39.76
|
2.44%
40.99
|
1.58%
63.38
|
0.77%
130.68
|
0.3%
336.81
|
| 5 |
0.52%
192.83
|
1.01%
99.39
|
0.98%
102.46
|
0.63%
158.45
|
0.31%
326.69
|
0.12%
841.75
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
3.08%
·
Fair:
32.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86.47% | 13.53% |
| 1.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 2.5 | 32.33% | 67.67% |
| 3.5 | 14.29% | 85.71% |
| 4.5 | 5.26% | 94.73% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 85.63% | 14.37% |
| 1.5 | 57.75% | 42.25% |
| 2.5 | 30.71% | 69.29% |
| 3.5 | 13.22% | 86.78% |
| 4.5 | 4.74% | 95.26% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.94% | 51.42 |
| 1 | 7.66% | 13.05 |
| 2 | 15.10% | 6.62 |
| 3 | 19.83% | 5.04 |
| 4 | 19.53% | 5.12 |
| 5+ | 35.94% | 2.78 |
|
Over 2.5 75.3%
Under 2.5 24.7%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
40.51%
Draw
22.25%
Away Win
37.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.3%
Under 2.5
24.7%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
74.04%
No
25.96%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 10.38% 9.63 | 12.11% 8.26 | 77.51% 1.29 |
| -1.5 | 22.49% 4.45 | — | 77.51% 1.29 |
| -1.0 | 22.49% 4.45 | 18.24% 5.48 | 59.27% 1.69 |
| -0.5 | 40.73% 2.46 | — | 59.27% 1.69 |
| 0 (PK) | 40.73% 2.46 | 20.86% 4.79 | 38.4% 2.6 |
| +0.5 | 61.6% 1.62 | — | 38.4% 2.6 |
| +1.0 | 61.6% 1.62 | 17.7% 5.65 | 20.71% 4.83 |
| +1.5 | 79.29% 1.26 | — | 20.71% 4.83 |
| +2.0 | 79.29% 1.26 | 11.39% 8.78 | 9.32% 10.73 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
