Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.83%
Fair Odds 4.38
Draw
23.46%
Fair Odds 4.26
Away Win
53.7%
Fair Odds 1.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.06% Fair Odds 9.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.38 —
Draw 4.26 —
Away Win 1.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.06% 9.94
2 1-2 9.76% 10.25
3 0-1 8.31% 12.03
4 0-2 8.06% 12.4
5 1-3 6.31% 15.85
6 2-1 6.09% 16.43
7 2-2 5.9% 16.94
8 0-3 5.21% 19.18
9 1-0 5.19% 19.29
10 0-0 4.29% 23.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.29%
23.34
8.31%
12.03
8.06%
12.4
5.21%
19.18
2.53%
39.54
0.98%
101.91
1
5.19%
19.29
10.06%
9.94
9.76%
10.25
6.31%
15.85
3.06%
32.68
1.19%
84.22
2
3.14%
31.88
6.09%
16.43
5.9%
16.94
3.82%
26.2
1.85%
54.01
0.72%
139.2
3
1.27%
79.03
2.45%
40.74
2.38%
42.0
1.54%
64.95
0.75%
133.9
0.29%
345.18
4
0.38%
261.3
0.74%
134.68
0.72%
138.85
0.47%
214.68
0.23%
442.67
0.09%
1141.55
5
0.09%
1079.91
0.18%
556.48
0.17%
573.72
0.11%
887.31
0.05%
1828.15
0.02%
4716.98
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.6% · Fair: 62.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.63% 14.37%
1.5 57.75% 42.25%
2.5 30.71% 69.29%
3.5 13.22% 86.78%
4.5 4.74% 95.26%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.29% 23.34
1 13.50% 7.41
2 21.26% 4.70
3 22.32% 4.48
4 17.58% 5.69
5+ 21.05% 4.75
Over 2.5 60.96% Under 2.5 39.04%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 22.83%
Draw 23.46%
Away Win 53.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.96%
Under 2.5 39.04%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.09%
No 39.91%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.98% 33.61 6.44% 15.54 90.59% 1.1
-1.5 9.41% 10.63 — 90.59% 1.1
-1.0 9.41% 10.63 14.18% 7.05 76.41% 1.31
-0.5 23.59% 4.24 — 76.41% 1.31
0 (PK) 23.59% 4.24 22.04% 4.54 54.38% 1.84
+0.5 45.62% 2.19 — 54.38% 1.84
+1.0 45.62% 2.19 22.73% 4.4 31.65% 3.16
+1.5 68.35% 1.46 — 31.65% 3.16
+2.0 68.35% 1.46 16.55% 6.04 15.1% 6.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.