Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
19.23%
Fair Odds 5.2
Draw
23.23%
Fair Odds 4.3
Away Win
57.54%
Fair Odds 1.74
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.25% Fair Odds 9.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.2 —
Draw 4.3 —
Away Win 1.74 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.25% 9.76
2 1-2 9.94% 10.06
3 0-1 9.85% 10.15
4 0-2 9.56% 10.46
5 1-3 6.43% 15.56
6 0-3 6.18% 16.18
7 2-1 5.33% 18.77
8 1-0 5.28% 18.93
9 2-2 5.17% 19.35
10 0-0 5.08% 19.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.08%
19.69
9.85%
10.15
9.56%
10.46
6.18%
16.18
3.0%
33.36
1.16%
85.98
1
5.28%
18.93
10.25%
9.76
9.94%
10.06
6.43%
15.56
3.12%
32.07
1.21%
82.67
2
2.75%
36.4
5.33%
18.77
5.17%
19.35
3.34%
29.92
1.62%
61.68
0.63%
158.98
3
0.95%
105.01
1.85%
54.13
1.79%
55.8
1.16%
86.3
0.56%
177.94
0.22%
458.51
4
0.25%
403.88
0.48%
208.2
0.47%
214.64
0.3%
331.9
0.15%
684.46
0.06%
1763.67
5
0.05%
1941.75
0.1%
1001.0
0.1%
1031.99
0.06%
1594.9
0.03%
3289.47
0.01%
8474.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.52% · Fair: 65.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.63% 14.37%
1.5 57.75% 42.25%
2.5 30.71% 69.29%
3.5 13.22% 86.78%
4.5 4.74% 95.26%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.08% 19.69
1 15.14% 6.61
2 22.55% 4.43
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.69% 5.99
5+ 18.14% 5.51
Over 2.5 57.23% Under 2.5 42.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 19.23%
Draw 23.23%
Away Win 57.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.23%
Under 2.5 42.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.36%
No 44.64%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.99% 50.19 5.13% 19.5 92.88% 1.08
-1.5 7.12% 14.04 — 92.88% 1.08
-1.0 7.12% 14.04 12.74% 7.85 80.14% 1.25
-0.5 19.86% 5.04 — 80.14% 1.25
0 (PK) 19.86% 5.04 21.81% 4.58 58.33% 1.71
+0.5 41.67% 2.4 — 58.33% 1.71
+1.0 41.67% 2.4 23.76% 4.21 34.57% 2.89
+1.5 65.43% 1.53 — 34.57% 2.89
+2.0 65.43% 1.53 17.85% 5.6 16.72% 5.98

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.