Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.18%
Fair Odds 3.82
Draw
23.56%
Fair Odds 4.24
Away Win
50.25%
Fair Odds 1.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.78% Fair Odds 10.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.82 —
Draw 4.24 —
Away Win 1.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.78% 10.23
2 1-2 9.44% 10.6
3 0-1 7.19% 13.91
4 0-2 6.94% 14.41
5 2-1 6.65% 15.04
6 2-2 6.42% 15.58
7 1-3 6.07% 16.47
8 1-0 5.07% 19.74
9 0-3 4.46% 22.4
10 2-3 4.13% 24.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.73%
26.84
7.19%
13.91
6.94%
14.41
4.46%
22.4
2.15%
46.43
0.83%
120.29
1
5.07%
19.74
9.78%
10.23
9.44%
10.6
6.07%
16.47
2.93%
34.14
1.13%
88.45
2
3.45%
29.03
6.65%
15.04
6.42%
15.58
4.13%
24.22
1.99%
50.21
0.77%
130.07
3
1.56%
64.03
3.01%
33.17
2.91%
34.38
1.87%
53.44
0.9%
110.75
0.35%
286.94
4
0.53%
188.32
1.02%
97.57
0.99%
101.11
0.64%
157.16
0.31%
325.73
0.12%
843.88
5
0.14%
692.52
0.28%
358.68
0.27%
371.75
0.17%
577.7
0.08%
1197.6
0.03%
3105.59
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.69% · Fair: 59.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.48% 14.51%
1.5 57.47% 42.53%
2.5 30.44% 69.56%
3.5 13.05% 86.95%
4.5 4.66% 95.34%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.73% 26.84
1 12.26% 8.16
2 20.16% 4.96
3 22.11% 4.52
4 18.19% 5.50
5+ 23.56% 4.24
Over 2.5 63.86% Under 2.5 36.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.18%
Draw 23.56%
Away Win 50.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.86%
Under 2.5 36.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.54%
No 36.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.06% 24.65 7.64% 13.09 88.3% 1.13
-1.5 11.7% 8.55 — 88.3% 1.13
-1.0 11.7% 8.55 15.35% 6.51 72.95% 1.37
-0.5 27.05% 3.7 — 72.95% 1.37
0 (PK) 27.05% 3.7 22.13% 4.52 50.82% 1.97
+0.5 49.18% 2.03 — 50.82% 1.97
+1.0 49.18% 2.03 21.79% 4.59 29.03% 3.44
+1.5 70.97% 1.41 — 29.03% 3.44
+2.0 70.97% 1.41 15.39% 6.5 13.64% 7.33

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.