Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.17%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
22.72%
Fair Odds 4.4
Away Win
40.11%
Fair Odds 2.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.11% Fair Odds 12.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 4.4 —
Away Win 2.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.11% 12.33
2 1-2 7.79% 12.84
3 2-1 7.59% 13.18
4 2-2 7.28% 13.73
5 1-3 4.98% 20.06
6 3-1 4.73% 21.15
7 2-3 4.66% 21.46
8 3-2 4.54% 22.03
9 0-1 4.34% 23.05
10 1-0 4.23% 23.67
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.26%
44.26
4.34%
23.05
4.16%
24.01
2.67%
37.52
1.28%
78.16
0.49%
203.54
1
4.23%
23.67
8.11%
12.33
7.79%
12.84
4.98%
20.06
2.39%
41.8
0.92%
108.85
2
3.95%
25.31
7.59%
13.18
7.28%
13.73
4.66%
21.46
2.24%
44.7
0.86%
116.41
3
2.46%
40.61
4.73%
21.15
4.54%
22.03
2.91%
34.42
1.39%
71.72
0.54%
186.74
4
1.15%
86.86
2.21%
45.24
2.12%
47.12
1.36%
73.63
0.65%
153.4
0.25%
399.52
5
0.43%
232.23
0.83%
120.96
0.79%
126.01
0.51%
196.89
0.24%
410.17
0.09%
1068.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.6% · Fair: 38.49
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.59% 15.41%
1.5 55.77% 44.23%
2.5 28.82% 71.18%
3.5 12.02% 87.98%
4.5 4.17% 95.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.34% 14.66%
1.5 57.19% 42.81%
2.5 30.17% 69.83%
3.5 12.87% 87.13%
4.5 4.57% 95.43%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.26% 44.26
1 8.56% 11.68
2 16.23% 6.16
3 20.50% 4.88
4 19.43% 5.15
5+ 33.02% 3.03
Over 2.5 72.95% Under 2.5 27.05%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.17%
Draw 22.72%
Away Win 40.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.95%
Under 2.5 27.05%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.19%
No 27.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.98% 11.14 11.39% 8.78 79.63% 1.26
-1.5 20.37% 4.91 — 79.63% 1.26
-1.0 20.37% 4.91 17.98% 5.56 61.65% 1.62
-0.5 38.35% 2.61 — 61.65% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.35% 2.61 21.31% 4.69 40.33% 2.48
+0.5 59.67% 1.68 — 40.33% 2.48
+1.0 59.67% 1.68 18.46% 5.42 21.87% 4.57
+1.5 78.13% 1.28 — 21.87% 4.57
+2.0 78.13% 1.28 12.01% 8.33 9.86% 10.15

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.