Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.6%
Fair Odds 2.98
Draw
23.16%
Fair Odds 4.32
Away Win
43.24%
Fair Odds 2.31
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.74% Fair Odds 11.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.98 —
Draw 4.32 —
Away Win 2.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.74% 11.44
2 1-2 8.39% 11.92
3 2-1 7.43% 13.46
4 2-2 7.13% 14.02
5 1-3 5.37% 18.62
6 0-1 5.14% 19.45
7 0-2 4.94% 20.26
8 2-3 4.57% 21.9
9 1-0 4.55% 21.96
10 3-1 4.21% 23.75
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.68%
37.34
5.14%
19.45
4.94%
20.26
3.16%
31.65
1.52%
65.94
0.58%
171.73
1
4.55%
21.96
8.74%
11.44
8.39%
11.92
5.37%
18.62
2.58%
38.79
0.99%
101.01
2
3.87%
25.84
7.43%
13.46
7.13%
14.02
4.57%
21.9
2.19%
45.63
0.84%
118.84
3
2.19%
45.6
4.21%
23.75
4.04%
24.74
2.59%
38.65
1.24%
80.53
0.48%
209.73
4
0.93%
107.28
1.79%
55.88
1.72%
58.21
1.1%
90.95
0.53%
189.47
0.2%
493.34
5
0.32%
315.56
0.61%
164.37
0.58%
171.2
0.37%
267.52
0.18%
557.41
0.07%
1451.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.17% · Fair: 46.02
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.34% 14.66%
1.5 57.19% 42.81%
2.5 30.17% 69.83%
3.5 12.87% 87.13%
4.5 4.57% 95.43%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.68% 37.34
1 9.70% 10.31
2 17.55% 5.70
3 21.18% 4.72
4 19.16% 5.22
5+ 29.74% 3.36
Over 2.5 70.08% Under 2.5 29.92%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.60%
Draw 23.16%
Away Win 43.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.08%
Under 2.5 29.92%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.75%
No 30.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.14% 14.01 10.23% 9.78 82.63% 1.21
-1.5 17.37% 5.76 — 82.63% 1.21
-1.0 17.37% 5.76 17.33% 5.77 65.31% 1.53
-0.5 34.69% 2.88 — 65.31% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.69% 2.88 21.74% 4.6 43.56% 2.3
+0.5 56.44% 1.77 — 43.56% 2.3
+1.0 56.44% 1.77 19.57% 5.11 24.0% 4.17
+1.5 76.0% 1.32 — 24.0% 4.17
+2.0 76.0% 1.32 13.05% 7.66 10.95% 9.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.