Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.99%
Fair Odds 3.23
Draw
23.47%
Fair Odds 4.26
Away Win
45.54%
Fair Odds 2.2
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.24% Fair Odds 10.82

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.23 —
Draw 4.26 —
Away Win 2.2 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.24% 10.82
2 1-2 8.82% 11.33
3 2-1 7.25% 13.79
4 2-2 6.93% 14.44
5 0-1 5.88% 16.99
6 0-2 5.62% 17.8
7 1-3 5.62% 17.8
8 1-0 4.84% 20.67
9 2-3 4.41% 22.68
10 2-0 3.8% 26.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.88%
16.99
5.62%
17.8
3.58%
27.95
1.71%
58.53
0.65%
153.23
1
4.84%
20.67
9.24%
10.82
8.82%
11.33
5.62%
17.8
2.68%
37.28
1.02%
97.6
2
3.8%
26.34
7.25%
13.79
6.93%
14.44
4.41%
22.68
2.11%
47.49
0.8%
124.33
3
1.99%
50.33
3.8%
26.35
3.62%
27.59
2.31%
43.34
1.1%
90.75
0.42%
237.59
4
0.78%
128.22
1.49%
67.13
1.42%
70.29
0.91%
110.41
0.43%
231.21
0.17%
605.33
5
0.24%
408.33
0.47%
213.81
0.45%
223.86
0.28%
351.62
0.14%
736.38
0.05%
1926.78
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.9% · Fair: 52.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.19% 14.81%
1.5 56.91% 43.09%
2.5 29.9% 70.1%
3.5 12.7% 87.3%
4.5 4.49% 95.51%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.99%
Draw 23.47%
Away Win 45.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.47%
No 32.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.91% 16.92 9.34% 10.71 84.75% 1.18
-1.5 15.25% 6.56 — 84.75% 1.18
-1.0 15.25% 6.56 16.77% 5.96 67.98% 1.47
-0.5 32.02% 3.12 — 67.98% 1.47
0 (PK) 32.02% 3.12 22.04% 4.54 45.94% 2.18
+0.5 54.06% 1.85 — 45.94% 2.18
+1.0 54.06% 1.85 20.4% 4.9 25.54% 3.92
+1.5 74.46% 1.34 — 25.54% 3.92
+2.0 74.46% 1.34 13.82% 7.24 11.72% 8.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.