Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.46%
Fair Odds 4.26
Draw
23.71%
Fair Odds 4.22
Away Win
52.83%
Fair Odds 1.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.19% Fair Odds 9.82

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.26 —
Draw 4.22 —
Away Win 1.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.19% 9.82
2 1-2 9.73% 10.28
3 0-1 8.35% 11.98
4 0-2 7.97% 12.54
5 2-1 6.21% 16.09
6 1-3 6.19% 16.14
7 2-2 5.93% 16.85
8 1-0 5.33% 18.75
9 0-3 5.08% 19.7
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
8.35%
11.98
7.97%
12.54
5.08%
19.7
2.42%
41.25
0.93%
107.98
1
5.33%
18.75
10.19%
9.82
9.73%
10.28
6.19%
16.14
2.96%
33.81
1.13%
88.51
2
3.25%
30.74
6.21%
16.09
5.93%
16.85
3.78%
26.47
1.8%
55.43
0.69%
145.1
3
1.32%
75.58
2.53%
39.57
2.41%
41.44
1.54%
65.08
0.73%
136.3
0.28%
356.76
4
0.4%
247.83
0.77%
129.74
0.74%
135.85
0.47%
213.4
0.22%
446.83
0.09%
1169.59
5
0.1%
1015.23
0.19%
531.63
0.18%
556.79
0.11%
874.89
0.05%
1831.5
0.02%
4784.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.51% · Fair: 66.09
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.19% 14.81%
1.5 56.91% 43.09%
2.5 29.9% 70.1%
3.5 12.7% 87.3%
4.5 4.49% 95.51%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.42% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.46%
Draw 23.71%
Away Win 52.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.04%
No 39.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.11% 32.17 6.64% 15.05 90.25% 1.11
-1.5 9.75% 10.26 — 90.25% 1.11
-1.0 9.75% 10.26 14.49% 6.9 75.76% 1.32
-0.5 24.24% 4.13 — 75.76% 1.32
0 (PK) 24.24% 4.13 22.28% 4.49 53.48% 1.87
+0.5 46.52% 2.15 — 53.48% 1.87
+1.0 46.52% 2.15 22.68% 4.41 30.8% 3.25
+1.5 69.2% 1.45 — 30.8% 3.25
+2.0 69.2% 1.45 16.28% 6.14 14.52% 6.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.