Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.37%
Fair Odds 3.19
Draw
23.51%
Fair Odds 4.25
Away Win
45.13%
Fair Odds 2.22
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.25% Fair Odds 10.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.19 —
Draw 4.25 —
Away Win 2.22 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.25% 10.81
2 1-2 8.79% 11.38
3 2-1 7.31% 13.69
4 2-2 6.94% 14.41
5 0-1 5.85% 17.08
6 1-3 5.56% 17.97
7 0-2 5.56% 17.98
8 1-0 4.87% 20.54
9 2-3 4.4% 22.75
10 3-1 3.85% 25.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.85%
17.08
5.56%
17.98
3.52%
28.39
1.67%
59.78
0.64%
157.31
1
4.87%
20.54
9.25%
10.81
8.79%
11.38
5.56%
17.97
2.64%
37.83
1.0%
99.56
2
3.85%
26.01
7.31%
13.69
6.94%
14.41
4.4%
22.75
2.09%
47.89
0.79%
126.02
3
2.03%
49.38
3.85%
25.99
3.66%
27.36
2.32%
43.19
1.1%
90.93
0.42%
239.29
4
0.8%
125.0
1.52%
65.79
1.44%
69.25
0.91%
109.35
0.43%
230.2
0.17%
605.69
5
0.25%
395.57
0.48%
208.2
0.46%
219.15
0.29%
346.02
0.14%
728.33
0.05%
1915.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.88% · Fair: 53.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.04% 14.96%
1.5 56.62% 43.37%
2.5 29.63% 70.37%
3.5 12.53% 87.47%
4.5 4.41% 95.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.37%
Draw 23.51%
Away Win 45.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.53%
No 32.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.04% 16.55 9.47% 10.56 84.49% 1.18
-1.5 15.51% 6.45 — 84.49% 1.18
-1.0 15.51% 6.45 16.9% 5.92 67.59% 1.48
-0.5 32.41% 3.09 — 67.59% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.41% 3.09 22.08% 4.53 45.52% 2.2
+0.5 54.48% 1.84 — 45.52% 2.2
+1.0 54.48% 1.84 20.32% 4.92 25.2% 3.97
+1.5 74.8% 1.34 — 25.2% 3.97
+2.0 74.8% 1.34 13.69% 7.31 11.51% 8.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.