Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.7%
Fair Odds 3.61
Draw
23.74%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
48.56%
Fair Odds 2.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.78% Fair Odds 10.22

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.61 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.78% 10.22
2 1-2 9.29% 10.76
3 0-1 6.94% 14.41
4 2-1 6.9% 14.5
5 0-2 6.59% 15.17
6 2-2 6.55% 15.26
7 1-3 5.89% 16.99
8 1-0 5.15% 19.42
9 0-3 4.17% 23.96
10 2-3 4.15% 24.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.65%
27.39
6.94%
14.41
6.59%
15.17
4.17%
23.96
1.98%
50.43
0.75%
132.71
1
5.15%
19.42
9.78%
10.22
9.29%
10.76
5.89%
16.99
2.8%
35.77
1.06%
94.13
2
3.63%
27.55
6.9%
14.5
6.55%
15.26
4.15%
24.1
1.97%
50.73
0.75%
133.51
3
1.71%
58.61
3.24%
30.85
3.08%
32.47
1.95%
51.27
0.93%
107.94
0.35%
284.09
4
0.6%
166.28
1.14%
87.52
1.09%
92.12
0.69%
145.45
0.33%
306.18
0.12%
805.8
5
0.17%
589.62
0.32%
310.37
0.31%
326.69
0.19%
515.73
0.09%
1085.78
0.03%
2857.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.65% · Fair: 60.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 85.04% 14.96%
1.5 56.62% 43.37%
2.5 29.63% 70.37%
3.5 12.53% 87.47%
4.5 4.41% 95.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.65% 27.39
1 12.09% 8.27
2 20.00% 5.00
3 22.07% 4.53
4 18.26% 5.48
5+ 23.92% 4.18
Over 2.5 64.26% Under 2.5 35.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.70%
Draw 23.74%
Away Win 48.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.26%
Under 2.5 35.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.28%
No 35.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.54% 22.01 8.17% 12.23 87.28% 1.15
-1.5 12.72% 7.86 — 87.28% 1.15
-1.0 12.72% 7.86 15.91% 6.28 71.37% 1.4
-0.5 28.63% 3.49 — 71.37% 1.4
0 (PK) 28.63% 3.49 22.3% 4.48 49.07% 2.04
+0.5 50.93% 1.96 — 49.07% 2.04
+1.0 50.93% 1.96 21.44% 4.66 27.62% 3.62
+1.5 72.38% 1.38 — 27.62% 3.62
+2.0 72.38% 1.38 14.84% 6.74 12.78% 7.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.