Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.94%
Fair Odds 3.46
Draw
23.75%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
47.31%
Fair Odds 2.11
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.68% Fair Odds 10.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.46 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.11 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.68% 10.33
2 1-2 9.15% 10.93
3 2-1 7.07% 14.15
4 2-2 6.68% 14.97
5 0-1 6.63% 15.08
6 0-2 6.27% 15.96
7 1-3 5.76% 17.35
8 1-0 5.12% 19.52
9 2-3 4.21% 23.77
10 0-3 3.95% 25.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
6.63%
15.08
6.27%
15.96
3.95%
25.33
1.87%
53.61
0.71%
141.82
1
5.12%
19.52
9.68%
10.33
9.15%
10.93
5.76%
17.35
2.72%
36.72
1.03%
97.14
2
3.74%
26.74
7.07%
14.15
6.68%
14.97
4.21%
23.77
1.99%
50.3
0.75%
133.07
3
1.82%
54.95
3.44%
29.07
3.25%
30.77
2.05%
48.84
0.97%
103.36
0.37%
273.45
4
0.66%
150.56
1.26%
79.66
1.19%
84.3
0.75%
133.8
0.35%
283.21
0.13%
749.06
5
0.19%
515.46
0.37%
272.78
0.35%
288.68
0.22%
458.3
0.1%
969.93
0.04%
2564.1
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.68% · Fair: 59.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.89% 15.11%
1.5 56.34% 43.66%
2.5 29.36% 70.64%
3.5 12.36% 87.64%
4.5 4.33% 95.67%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.94%
Draw 23.75%
Away Win 47.31%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.18%
No 34.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.0% 20.01 8.61% 11.61 86.39% 1.16
-1.5 13.61% 7.35 — 86.39% 1.16
-1.0 13.61% 7.35 16.3% 6.13 70.09% 1.43
-0.5 29.91% 3.34 — 70.09% 1.43
0 (PK) 29.91% 3.34 22.31% 4.48 47.78% 2.09
+0.5 52.22% 1.92 — 47.78% 2.09
+1.0 52.22% 1.92 21.1% 4.74 26.68% 3.75
+1.5 73.32% 1.36 — 26.68% 3.75
+2.0 73.32% 1.36 14.43% 6.93 12.25% 8.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.