Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.73%
Fair Odds 2.52
Draw
22.72%
Fair Odds 4.4
Away Win
37.55%
Fair Odds 2.66
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.11% Fair Odds 12.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.52 —
Draw 4.4 —
Away Win 2.66 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.11% 12.32
2 2-1 7.75% 12.91
3 1-2 7.63% 13.11
4 2-2 7.28% 13.73
5 3-1 4.93% 20.27
6 1-3 4.78% 20.92
7 3-2 4.64% 21.56
8 2-3 4.56% 21.91
9 1-0 4.32% 23.17
10 0-1 4.25% 23.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.26%
44.26
4.25%
23.54
3.99%
25.04
2.5%
39.96
1.18%
85.03
0.44%
226.14
1
4.32%
23.17
8.11%
12.32
7.63%
13.11
4.78%
20.92
2.25%
44.52
0.84%
118.4
2
4.12%
24.26
7.75%
12.91
7.28%
13.73
4.56%
21.91
2.15%
46.61
0.81%
123.98
3
2.62%
38.11
4.93%
20.27
4.64%
21.56
2.91%
34.41
1.37%
73.22
0.51%
194.7
4
1.25%
79.81
2.36%
42.45
2.21%
45.16
1.39%
72.07
0.65%
153.33
0.25%
407.83
5
0.48%
208.94
0.9%
111.12
0.85%
118.22
0.53%
188.64
0.25%
401.45
0.09%
1067.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.6% · Fair: 38.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.19% 14.81%
1.5 56.91% 43.09%
2.5 29.9% 70.1%
3.5 12.7% 87.3%
4.5 4.49% 95.51%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.74% 15.26%
1.5 56.05% 43.95%
2.5 29.09% 70.91%
3.5 12.19% 87.81%
4.5 4.25% 95.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.26% 44.26
1 8.56% 11.68
2 16.23% 6.16
3 20.50% 4.88
4 19.43% 5.15
5+ 33.02% 3.03
Over 2.5 72.95% Under 2.5 27.05%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.73%
Draw 22.72%
Away Win 37.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.95%
Under 2.5 27.05%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.19%
No 27.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.68% 10.34 11.89% 8.41 78.44% 1.27
-1.5 21.56% 4.64 — 78.44% 1.27
-1.0 21.56% 4.64 18.37% 5.44 60.07% 1.66
-0.5 39.93% 2.5 — 60.07% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.93% 2.5 21.32% 4.69 38.75% 2.58
+0.5 61.25% 1.63 — 38.75% 2.58
+1.0 61.25% 1.63 18.08% 5.53 20.66% 4.84
+1.5 79.33% 1.26 — 20.66% 4.84
+2.0 79.33% 1.26 11.52% 8.68 9.15% 10.93

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.