Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.12%
Fair Odds 3.11
Draw
23.57%
Fair Odds 4.24
Away Win
44.31%
Fair Odds 2.26
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.27% Fair Odds 10.79

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.11 —
Draw 4.24 —
Away Win 2.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.27% 10.79
2 1-2 8.71% 11.48
3 2-1 7.41% 13.49
4 2-2 6.97% 14.35
5 0-1 5.79% 17.27
6 1-3 5.46% 18.32
7 0-2 5.44% 18.37
8 1-0 4.93% 20.29
9 2-3 4.37% 22.9
10 3-1 3.95% 25.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.79%
17.27
5.44%
18.37
3.41%
29.31
1.6%
62.36
0.6%
165.86
1
4.93%
20.29
9.27%
10.79
8.71%
11.48
5.46%
18.32
2.57%
38.98
0.96%
103.66
2
3.94%
25.36
7.41%
13.49
6.97%
14.35
4.37%
22.9
2.05%
48.72
0.77%
129.58
3
2.1%
47.55
3.95%
25.29
3.72%
26.91
2.33%
42.94
1.09%
91.35
0.41%
242.95
4
0.84%
118.86
1.58%
63.23
1.49%
67.26
0.93%
107.34
0.44%
228.36
0.16%
607.53
5
0.27%
371.47
0.51%
197.59
0.48%
210.22
0.3%
335.46
0.14%
713.78
0.05%
1897.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.86% · Fair: 53.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.74% 15.26%
1.5 56.05% 43.95%
2.5 29.09% 70.91%
3.5 12.19% 87.81%
4.5 4.25% 95.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.12%
Draw 23.57%
Away Win 44.31%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.63%
No 32.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.32% 15.83 9.72% 10.29 83.96% 1.19
-1.5 16.04% 6.23 — 83.96% 1.19
-1.0 16.04% 6.23 17.15% 5.83 66.81% 1.5
-0.5 33.19% 3.01 — 66.81% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.19% 3.01 22.14% 4.52 44.67% 2.24
+0.5 55.33% 1.81 — 44.67% 2.24
+1.0 55.33% 1.81 20.15% 4.96 24.52% 4.08
+1.5 75.48% 1.32 — 24.52% 4.08
+2.0 75.48% 1.32 13.42% 7.45 11.1% 9.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.