Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.49%
Fair Odds 3.78
Draw
23.93%
Fair Odds 4.18
Away Win
49.59%
Fair Odds 2.02
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.07% Fair Odds 9.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.78 —
Draw 4.18 —
Away Win 2.02 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.07% 9.93
2 1-2 9.46% 10.57
3 0-1 7.51% 13.31
4 0-2 7.06% 14.16
5 2-1 6.74% 14.83
6 2-2 6.34% 15.77
7 1-3 5.93% 16.87
8 1-0 5.35% 18.68
9 0-3 4.42% 22.6
10 0-0 4.0% 25.03
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.0%
25.03
7.51%
13.31
7.06%
14.16
4.42%
22.6
2.08%
48.08
0.78%
127.88
1
5.35%
18.68
10.07%
9.93
9.46%
10.57
5.93%
16.87
2.79%
35.88
1.05%
95.44
2
3.59%
27.88
6.74%
14.83
6.34%
15.77
3.97%
25.17
1.87%
53.56
0.7%
142.45
3
1.6%
62.41
3.01%
33.2
2.83%
35.32
1.77%
56.36
0.83%
119.9
0.31%
318.88
4
0.54%
186.29
1.01%
99.1
0.95%
105.42
0.59%
168.24
0.28%
357.91
0.1%
952.38
5
0.14%
694.93
0.27%
369.82
0.25%
393.39
0.16%
627.75
0.07%
1335.11
0.03%
3546.1
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.52% · Fair: 65.96
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.74% 15.26%
1.5 56.05% 43.95%
2.5 29.09% 70.91%
3.5 12.19% 87.81%
4.5 4.25% 95.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.00% 25.03
1 12.87% 7.77
2 20.71% 4.83
3 22.23% 4.50
4 17.90% 5.59
5+ 22.30% 4.49
Over 2.5 62.42% Under 2.5 37.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.49%
Draw 23.93%
Away Win 49.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.42%
Under 2.5 37.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.55%
No 37.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.05% 24.7 7.73% 12.94 88.23% 1.13
-1.5 11.77% 8.49 — 88.23% 1.13
-1.0 11.77% 8.49 15.61% 6.41 72.62% 1.38
-0.5 27.38% 3.65 — 72.62% 1.38
0 (PK) 27.38% 3.65 22.48% 4.45 50.14% 1.99
+0.5 49.86% 2.01 — 50.14% 1.99
+1.0 49.86% 2.01 21.89% 4.57 28.24% 3.54
+1.5 71.76% 1.39 — 28.24% 3.54
+2.0 71.76% 1.39 15.21% 6.58 13.04% 7.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.