Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.67%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
23.29%
Fair Odds 4.29
Away Win
41.04%
Fair Odds 2.44
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.81% Fair Odds 11.36

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 4.29 —
Away Win 2.44 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.81% 11.36
2 1-2 8.19% 12.21
3 2-1 7.7% 12.98
4 2-2 7.17% 13.96
5 1-3 5.08% 19.7
6 0-1 5.03% 19.87
7 1-0 4.73% 21.12
8 0-2 4.68% 21.37
9 3-1 4.49% 22.25
10 2-3 4.44% 22.51
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.71%
36.97
5.03%
19.87
4.68%
21.37
2.9%
34.47
1.35%
74.12
0.5%
199.24
1
4.73%
21.12
8.81%
11.36
8.19%
12.21
5.08%
19.7
2.36%
42.36
0.88%
113.86
2
4.14%
24.14
7.7%
12.98
7.17%
13.96
4.44%
22.51
2.07%
48.41
0.77%
130.12
3
2.42%
41.38
4.49%
22.25
4.18%
23.92
2.59%
38.59
1.21%
82.99
0.45%
223.06
4
1.06%
94.59
1.97%
50.86
1.83%
54.68
1.13%
88.2
0.53%
189.68
0.2%
509.94
5
0.37%
270.27
0.69%
145.31
0.64%
156.25
0.4%
252.02
0.18%
542.01
0.07%
1457.73
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.1% · Fair: 47.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.43% 15.57%
1.5 55.48% 44.52%
2.5 28.55% 71.45%
3.5 11.85% 88.15%
4.5 4.09% 95.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.71% 36.97
1 9.77% 10.24
2 17.63% 5.67
3 21.21% 4.71
4 19.14% 5.22
5+ 29.55% 3.38
Over 2.5 69.9% Under 2.5 30.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.67%
Draw 23.29%
Away Win 41.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 69.9%
Under 2.5 30.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.76%
No 30.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.96% 12.56 10.92% 9.16 81.12% 1.23
-1.5 18.88% 5.3 — 81.12% 1.23
-1.0 18.88% 5.3 17.96% 5.57 63.16% 1.58
-0.5 36.84% 2.71 — 63.16% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.84% 2.71 21.87% 4.57 41.29% 2.42
+0.5 58.71% 1.7 — 41.29% 2.42
+1.0 58.71% 1.7 19.09% 5.24 22.2% 4.5
+1.5 77.8% 1.29 — 22.2% 4.5
+2.0 77.8% 1.29 12.34% 8.11 9.86% 10.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.