Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.89%
Fair Odds 2.45
Draw
22.71%
Fair Odds 4.4
Away Win
36.41%
Fair Odds 2.75
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.11% Fair Odds 12.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.45 —
Draw 4.4 —
Away Win 2.75 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.11% 12.33
2 2-1 7.87% 12.71
3 1-2 7.5% 13.33
4 2-2 7.28% 13.74
5 3-1 5.09% 19.66
6 3-2 4.71% 21.25
7 1-3 4.63% 21.62
8 2-3 4.49% 22.29
9 1-0 4.38% 22.81
10 2-0 4.25% 23.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.26%
44.26
4.18%
23.92
3.87%
25.86
2.38%
41.94
1.1%
90.68
0.41%
245.1
1
4.38%
22.81
8.11%
12.33
7.5%
13.33
4.63%
21.62
2.14%
46.74
0.79%
126.33
2
4.25%
23.52
7.87%
12.71
7.28%
13.74
4.49%
22.29
2.08%
48.19
0.77%
130.23
3
2.75%
36.37
5.09%
19.66
4.71%
21.25
2.9%
34.46
1.34%
74.52
0.5%
201.41
4
1.33%
74.99
2.47%
40.53
2.28%
43.82
1.41%
71.06
0.65%
153.63
0.24%
415.28
5
0.52%
193.27
0.96%
104.46
0.89%
112.93
0.55%
183.15
0.25%
396.04
0.09%
1070.66
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.61% · Fair: 38.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.63% 14.37%
1.5 57.75% 42.25%
2.5 30.71% 69.29%
3.5 13.22% 86.78%
4.5 4.74% 95.26%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.26% 44.26
1 8.56% 11.68
2 16.23% 6.16
3 20.50% 4.88
4 19.43% 5.15
5+ 33.02% 3.03
Over 2.5 72.95% Under 2.5 27.05%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.89%
Draw 22.71%
Away Win 36.41%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.95%
Under 2.5 27.05%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.16%
No 27.84%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.22% 9.78 12.26% 8.16 77.52% 1.29
-1.5 22.48% 4.45 — 77.52% 1.29
-1.0 22.48% 4.45 18.65% 5.36 58.87% 1.7
-0.5 41.13% 2.43 — 58.87% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.13% 2.43 21.3% 4.69 37.57% 2.66
+0.5 62.43% 1.6 — 37.57% 2.66
+1.0 62.43% 1.6 17.78% 5.62 19.79% 5.05
+1.5 80.21% 1.25 — 19.79% 5.05
+2.0 80.21% 1.25 11.15% 8.97 8.64% 11.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.