Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.26%
Fair Odds 3.01
Draw
23.65%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
43.08%
Fair Odds 2.32
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.29% Fair Odds 10.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.01 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 2.32 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.29% 10.76
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 7.57% 13.21
4 2-2 7.0% 14.28
5 0-1 5.7% 17.55
6 1-3 5.3% 18.87
7 0-2 5.27% 18.97
8 1-0 5.02% 19.91
9 2-3 4.32% 23.15
10 3-1 4.11% 24.31
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.7%
17.55
5.27%
18.97
3.25%
30.76
1.5%
66.51
0.56%
179.76
1
5.02%
19.91
9.29%
10.76
8.59%
11.64
5.3%
18.87
2.45%
40.8
0.91%
110.28
2
4.09%
24.43
7.57%
13.21
7.0%
14.28
4.32%
23.15
2.0%
50.06
0.74%
135.3
3
2.22%
44.97
4.11%
24.31
3.81%
26.28
2.35%
42.61
1.09%
92.14
0.4%
249.0
4
0.91%
110.36
1.68%
59.65
1.55%
64.49
0.96%
104.58
0.44%
226.09
0.16%
611.25
5
0.3%
338.52
0.55%
182.98
0.51%
197.82
0.31%
320.82
0.14%
693.48
0.05%
1876.17
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.82% · Fair: 54.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.26%
Draw 23.65%
Away Win 43.08%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.76%
No 32.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.75% 14.82 10.11% 9.89 83.14% 1.2
-1.5 16.86% 5.93 — 83.14% 1.2
-1.0 16.86% 5.93 17.51% 5.71 65.63% 1.52
-0.5 34.37% 2.91 — 65.63% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.37% 2.91 22.22% 4.5 43.41% 2.3
+0.5 56.59% 1.77 — 43.41% 2.3
+1.0 56.59% 1.77 19.88% 5.03 23.53% 4.25
+1.5 76.47% 1.31 — 23.53% 4.25
+2.0 76.47% 1.31 13.03% 7.68 10.5% 9.52

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.