Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.53%
Fair Odds 3.17
Draw
23.83%
Fair Odds 4.2
Away Win
44.64%
Fair Odds 2.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.57% Fair Odds 10.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.17 —
Draw 4.2 —
Away Win 2.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.57% 10.45
2 1-2 8.85% 11.3
3 2-1 7.42% 13.48
4 2-2 6.86% 14.58
5 0-1 6.17% 16.2
6 0-2 5.71% 17.51
7 1-3 5.46% 18.32
8 1-0 5.17% 19.33
9 2-3 4.23% 23.64
10 2-0 4.01% 24.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.34%
29.96
6.17%
16.2
5.71%
17.51
3.52%
28.39
1.63%
61.39
0.6%
165.92
1
5.17%
19.33
9.57%
10.45
8.85%
11.3
5.46%
18.32
2.52%
39.61
0.93%
107.05
2
4.01%
24.94
7.42%
13.48
6.86%
14.58
4.23%
23.64
1.96%
51.11
0.72%
138.12
3
2.07%
48.28
3.83%
26.1
3.54%
28.21
2.19%
45.75
1.01%
98.92
0.37%
267.38
4
0.8%
124.6
1.48%
67.34
1.37%
72.81
0.85%
118.06
0.39%
255.3
0.14%
690.13
5
0.25%
401.93
0.46%
217.25
0.43%
234.85
0.26%
380.81
0.12%
823.72
0.04%
2227.17
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.69% · Fair: 59.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.34% 29.96
1 11.35% 8.81
2 19.29% 5.18
3 21.86% 4.57
4 18.58% 5.38
5+ 25.58% 3.91
Over 2.5 66.03% Under 2.5 33.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.53%
Draw 23.83%
Away Win 44.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.03%
Under 2.5 33.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 66.39%
No 33.61%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.96% 16.77 9.51% 10.51 84.53% 1.18
-1.5 15.47% 6.46 — 84.53% 1.18
-1.0 15.47% 6.46 17.11% 5.84 67.41% 1.48
-0.5 32.59% 3.07 — 67.41% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.59% 3.07 22.39% 4.47 45.02% 2.22
+0.5 54.98% 1.82 — 45.02% 2.22
+1.0 54.98% 1.82 20.43% 4.9 24.59% 4.07
+1.5 75.41% 1.33 — 24.59% 4.07
+2.0 75.41% 1.33 13.55% 7.38 11.04% 9.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.