Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.44%
Fair Odds 3.29
Draw
23.93%
Fair Odds 4.18
Away Win
45.63%
Fair Odds 2.19
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.74% Fair Odds 10.27

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.29 —
Draw 4.18 —
Away Win 2.19 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.74% 10.27
2 1-2 9.01% 11.1
3 2-1 7.3% 13.69
4 2-2 6.75% 14.81
5 0-1 6.49% 15.41
6 0-2 6.0% 16.66
7 1-3 5.55% 18.01
8 1-0 5.26% 19.0
9 2-3 4.17% 24.01
10 2-0 3.95% 25.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
6.49%
15.41
6.0%
16.66
3.7%
27.01
1.71%
58.4
0.63%
157.83
1
5.26%
19.0
9.74%
10.27
9.01%
11.1
5.55%
18.01
2.57%
38.93
0.95%
105.22
2
3.95%
25.34
7.3%
13.69
6.75%
14.81
4.17%
24.01
1.93%
51.91
0.71%
140.29
3
1.97%
50.67
3.65%
27.39
3.38%
29.61
2.08%
48.02
0.96%
103.82
0.36%
280.58
4
0.74%
135.12
1.37%
73.04
1.27%
78.96
0.78%
128.04
0.36%
276.85
0.13%
748.5
5
0.22%
450.45
0.41%
243.49
0.38%
263.23
0.23%
426.8
0.11%
922.51
0.04%
2493.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.61% · Fair: 61.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.44%
Draw 23.93%
Away Win 45.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.47%
No 34.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.5% 18.19 9.13% 10.96 85.38% 1.17
-1.5 14.62% 6.84 — 85.38% 1.17
-1.0 14.62% 6.84 16.84% 5.94 68.53% 1.46
-0.5 31.47% 3.18 — 68.53% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.47% 3.18 22.49% 4.45 46.05% 2.17
+0.5 53.95% 1.85 — 46.05% 2.17
+1.0 53.95% 1.85 20.77% 4.81 25.28% 3.96
+1.5 74.72% 1.34 — 25.28% 3.96
+2.0 74.72% 1.34 13.88% 7.2 11.39% 8.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.