Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.37%
Fair Odds 3.65
Draw
24.12%
Fair Odds 4.15
Away Win
48.51%
Fair Odds 2.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.15% Fair Odds 9.85

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.65 —
Draw 4.15 —
Away Win 2.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.15% 9.85
2 1-2 9.39% 10.65
3 0-1 7.47% 13.39
4 0-2 6.91% 14.48
5 2-1 6.9% 14.48
6 2-2 6.39% 15.66
7 1-3 5.79% 17.27
8 1-0 5.49% 18.22
9 0-3 4.26% 23.48
10 0-0 4.04% 24.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.04%
24.78
7.47%
13.39
6.91%
14.48
4.26%
23.48
1.97%
50.77
0.73%
137.21
1
5.49%
18.22
10.15%
9.85
9.39%
10.65
5.79%
17.27
2.68%
37.33
0.99%
100.9
2
3.73%
26.79
6.9%
14.48
6.39%
15.66
3.94%
25.39
1.82%
54.9
0.67%
148.37
3
1.69%
59.11
3.13%
31.95
2.9%
34.54
1.79%
56.01
0.83%
121.09
0.31%
327.33
4
0.58%
173.82
1.06%
93.97
0.98%
101.58
0.61%
164.72
0.28%
356.13
0.1%
962.46
5
0.16%
638.98
0.29%
345.42
0.27%
373.41
0.17%
605.69
0.08%
1308.9
0.03%
3533.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.45% · Fair: 69.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.04% 24.78
1 12.95% 7.72
2 20.79% 4.81
3 22.25% 4.49
4 17.85% 5.60
5+ 22.12% 4.52
Over 2.5 62.22% Under 2.5 37.78%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.37%
Draw 24.12%
Away Win 48.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.22%
Under 2.5 37.78%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.65%
No 37.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.29% 23.28 8.03% 12.45 87.67% 1.14
-1.5 12.33% 8.11 — 87.67% 1.14
-1.0 12.33% 8.11 15.98% 6.26 71.7% 1.39
-0.5 28.3% 3.53 — 71.7% 1.39
0 (PK) 28.3% 3.53 22.67% 4.41 49.02% 2.04
+0.5 50.98% 1.96 — 49.02% 2.04
+1.0 50.98% 1.96 21.74% 4.6 27.29% 3.66
+1.5 72.71% 1.38 — 27.29% 3.66
+2.0 72.71% 1.38 14.86% 6.73 12.43% 8.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.