Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.61%
Fair Odds 3.9
Draw
24.18%
Fair Odds 4.14
Away Win
50.21%
Fair Odds 1.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.35% Fair Odds 9.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.9 —
Draw 4.14 —
Away Win 1.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.35% 9.66
2 1-2 9.58% 10.44
3 0-1 8.09% 12.36
4 0-2 7.48% 13.37
5 2-1 6.63% 15.09
6 2-2 6.13% 16.32
7 1-3 5.91% 16.93
8 1-0 5.6% 17.87
9 0-3 4.61% 21.68
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
8.09%
12.36
7.48%
13.37
4.61%
21.68
2.13%
46.87
0.79%
126.66
1
5.6%
17.87
10.35%
9.66
9.58%
10.44
5.91%
16.93
2.73%
36.61
1.01%
98.96
2
3.58%
27.92
6.63%
15.09
6.13%
16.32
3.78%
26.46
1.75%
57.21
0.65%
154.63
3
1.53%
65.44
2.83%
35.37
2.61%
38.24
1.61%
62.02
0.75%
134.08
0.28%
362.45
4
0.49%
204.5
0.9%
110.55
0.84%
119.5
0.52%
193.8
0.24%
418.94
0.09%
1132.5
5
0.13%
798.72
0.23%
431.78
0.21%
466.85
0.13%
757.0
0.06%
1636.66
0.02%
4424.78
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.38% · Fair: 72.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.41% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.61%
Draw 24.18%
Away Win 50.21%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.84%
No 39.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.68% 27.19 7.39% 13.53 88.93% 1.12
-1.5 11.07% 9.03 — 88.93% 1.12
-1.0 11.07% 9.03 15.42% 6.49 73.51% 1.36
-0.5 26.49% 3.78 — 73.51% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.49% 3.78 22.73% 4.4 50.78% 1.97
+0.5 49.22% 2.03 — 50.78% 1.97
+1.0 49.22% 2.03 22.28% 4.49 28.5% 3.51
+1.5 71.5% 1.4 — 28.5% 3.51
+2.0 71.5% 1.4 15.44% 6.48 13.06% 7.66

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.