Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.86%
Fair Odds 2.95
Draw
23.65%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
42.48%
Fair Odds 2.35
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.26% Fair Odds 10.8

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.95 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 2.35 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.26% 10.8
2 1-2 8.52% 11.74
3 2-1 7.64% 13.09
4 2-2 7.03% 14.23
5 0-1 5.61% 17.82
6 1-3 5.23% 19.14
7 0-2 5.16% 19.37
8 1-0 5.03% 19.87
9 2-3 4.31% 23.2
10 3-1 4.2% 23.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.05%
32.79
5.61%
17.82
5.16%
19.37
3.17%
31.58
1.46%
68.65
0.54%
186.53
1
5.03%
19.87
9.26%
10.8
8.52%
11.74
5.23%
19.14
2.4%
41.6
0.88%
113.06
2
4.15%
24.08
7.64%
13.09
7.03%
14.23
4.31%
23.2
1.98%
50.43
0.73%
137.04
3
2.28%
43.79
4.2%
23.8
3.87%
25.87
2.37%
42.18
1.09%
91.69
0.4%
249.19
4
0.94%
106.16
1.73%
57.7
1.59%
62.71
0.98%
102.25
0.45%
222.27
0.17%
603.86
5
0.31%
321.65
0.57%
174.83
0.53%
190.04
0.32%
309.89
0.15%
673.4
0.05%
1831.5
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.83% · Fair: 54.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.05% 32.79
1 10.64% 9.39
2 18.58% 5.38
3 21.61% 4.63
4 18.85% 5.30
5+ 27.27% 3.67
Over 2.5 67.73% Under 2.5 32.27%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.86%
Draw 23.65%
Away Win 42.48%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.73%
Under 2.5 32.27%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.96%
No 32.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.0% 14.29 10.32% 9.69 82.69% 1.21
-1.5 17.31% 5.78 — 82.69% 1.21
-1.0 17.31% 5.78 17.68% 5.66 65.01% 1.54
-0.5 34.99% 2.86 — 65.01% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.99% 2.86 22.22% 4.5 42.79% 2.34
+0.5 57.21% 1.75 — 42.79% 2.34
+1.0 57.21% 1.75 19.72% 5.07 23.07% 4.33
+1.5 76.93% 1.3 — 23.07% 4.33
+2.0 76.93% 1.3 12.83% 7.8 10.24% 9.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.