Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.65%
Fair Odds 2.97
Draw
23.68%
Fair Odds 4.22
Away Win
42.67%
Fair Odds 2.34
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.3% Fair Odds 10.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.97 —
Draw 4.22 —
Away Win 2.34 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.3% 10.76
2 1-2 8.55% 11.69
3 2-1 7.62% 13.12
4 2-2 7.01% 14.26
5 0-1 5.67% 17.64
6 1-3 5.25% 19.06
7 0-2 5.22% 19.18
8 1-0 5.05% 19.79
9 2-3 4.3% 23.25
10 3-1 4.17% 24.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.67%
17.64
5.22%
19.18
3.2%
31.26
1.47%
67.96
0.54%
184.67
1
5.05%
19.79
9.3%
10.76
8.55%
11.69
5.25%
19.06
2.41%
41.44
0.89%
112.61
2
4.14%
24.14
7.62%
13.12
7.01%
14.26
4.3%
23.25
1.98%
50.54
0.73%
137.32
3
2.26%
44.15
4.17%
24.0
3.83%
26.08
2.35%
42.53
1.08%
92.45
0.4%
251.19
4
0.93%
107.69
1.71%
58.53
1.57%
63.62
0.96%
103.72
0.44%
225.48
0.16%
612.75
5
0.3%
328.3
0.56%
178.44
0.52%
193.95
0.32%
316.26
0.15%
687.29
0.05%
1869.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.81% · Fair: 55.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.65%
Draw 23.68%
Away Win 42.67%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.8%
No 32.2%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.89% 14.5 10.24% 9.76 82.86% 1.21
-1.5 17.14% 5.84 — 82.86% 1.21
-1.0 17.14% 5.84 17.63% 5.67 65.23% 1.53
-0.5 34.77% 2.88 — 65.23% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.77% 2.88 22.24% 4.5 42.98% 2.33
+0.5 57.01% 1.75 — 42.98% 2.33
+1.0 57.01% 1.75 19.79% 5.05 23.2% 4.31
+1.5 76.8% 1.3 — 23.2% 4.31
+2.0 76.8% 1.3 12.89% 7.76 10.31% 9.7

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.