Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.78%
Fair Odds 3.05
Draw
23.78%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
43.44%
Fair Odds 2.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.44% Fair Odds 10.59

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.05 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.44% 10.59
2 1-2 8.68% 11.51
3 2-1 7.55% 13.24
4 2-2 6.95% 14.39
5 0-1 5.9% 16.95
6 0-2 5.43% 18.42
7 1-3 5.33% 18.77
8 1-0 5.13% 19.49
9 2-3 4.26% 23.47
10 2-0 4.1% 24.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.21%
31.19
5.9%
16.95
5.43%
18.42
3.33%
30.04
1.53%
65.3
0.56%
177.43
1
5.13%
19.49
9.44%
10.59
8.68%
11.51
5.33%
18.77
2.45%
40.81
0.9%
110.9
2
4.1%
24.36
7.55%
13.24
6.95%
14.39
4.26%
23.47
1.96%
51.02
0.72%
138.62
3
2.19%
45.68
4.03%
24.83
3.71%
26.99
2.27%
44.0
1.05%
95.66
0.38%
259.94
4
0.88%
114.21
1.61%
62.07
1.48%
67.47
0.91%
110.0
0.42%
239.12
0.15%
649.77
5
0.28%
356.89
0.52%
193.99
0.47%
210.84
0.29%
343.76
0.13%
747.38
0.05%
2032.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.74% · Fair: 57.4
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.21% 31.19
1 11.03% 9.07
2 18.97% 5.27
3 21.75% 4.60
4 18.71% 5.34
5+ 26.33% 3.80
Over 2.5 66.79% Under 2.5 33.21%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.78%
Draw 23.78%
Away Win 43.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.79%
Under 2.5 33.21%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.13%
No 32.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.49% 15.41 9.94% 10.06 83.56% 1.2
-1.5 16.43% 6.08 — 83.56% 1.2
-1.0 16.43% 6.08 17.44% 5.73 66.12% 1.51
-0.5 33.88% 2.95 — 66.12% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.88% 2.95 22.34% 4.48 43.78% 2.28
+0.5 56.22% 1.78 — 43.78% 2.28
+1.0 56.22% 1.78 20.06% 4.98 23.72% 4.22
+1.5 76.28% 1.31 — 23.72% 4.22
+2.0 76.28% 1.31 13.15% 7.6 10.57% 9.46

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.