Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.44%
Fair Odds 4.09
Draw
24.27%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
51.29%
Fair Odds 1.95
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.53% Fair Odds 9.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.09 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 1.95 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.53% 9.5
2 1-2 9.68% 10.33
3 0-1 8.63% 11.59
4 0-2 7.94% 12.6
5 2-1 6.42% 15.58
6 1-3 5.94% 16.84
7 2-2 5.91% 16.93
8 1-0 5.72% 17.48
9 0-3 4.87% 20.54
10 0-0 4.69% 21.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.69%
21.33
8.63%
11.59
7.94%
12.6
4.87%
20.54
2.24%
44.66
0.82%
121.34
1
5.72%
17.48
10.53%
9.5
9.68%
10.33
5.94%
16.84
2.73%
36.6
1.01%
99.46
2
3.49%
28.66
6.42%
15.58
5.91%
16.93
3.62%
27.6
1.67%
60.01
0.61%
163.05
3
1.42%
70.47
2.61%
38.3
2.4%
41.63
1.47%
67.87
0.68%
147.56
0.25%
400.96
4
0.43%
231.05
0.8%
125.57
0.73%
136.5
0.45%
222.52
0.21%
483.79
0.08%
1314.06
5
0.11%
946.97
0.19%
514.67
0.18%
559.28
0.11%
912.41
0.05%
1984.13
0.02%
5376.34
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.31% · Fair: 76.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.69% 21.33
1 14.35% 6.97
2 21.95% 4.56
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.13% 5.84
5+ 19.49% 5.13
Over 2.5 59.01% Under 2.5 40.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.44%
Draw 24.27%
Away Win 51.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.01%
Under 2.5 40.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.28%
No 40.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.27% 30.55 6.95% 14.38 89.77% 1.11
-1.5 10.23% 9.78 — 89.77% 1.11
-1.0 10.23% 9.78 15.05% 6.65 74.73% 1.34
-0.5 25.27% 3.96 — 74.73% 1.34
0 (PK) 25.27% 3.96 22.82% 4.38 51.91% 1.93
+0.5 48.09% 2.08 — 51.91% 1.93
+1.0 48.09% 2.08 22.69% 4.41 29.21% 3.42
+1.5 70.79% 1.41 — 29.21% 3.42
+2.0 70.79% 1.41 15.82% 6.32 13.4% 7.47

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.