Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.66%
Fair Odds 2.4
Draw
22.68%
Fair Odds 4.41
Away Win
35.65%
Fair Odds 2.8
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.1% Fair Odds 12.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.4 —
Draw 4.41 —
Away Win 2.8 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.1% 12.34
2 2-1 7.94% 12.59
3 1-2 7.42% 13.48
4 2-2 7.27% 13.76
5 3-1 5.19% 19.27
6 3-2 4.75% 21.06
7 1-3 4.52% 22.11
8 2-3 4.43% 22.56
9 1-0 4.43% 22.58
10 2-0 4.34% 23.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.26%
44.26
4.13%
24.18
3.78%
26.43
2.31%
43.33
1.06%
94.71
0.39%
258.73
1
4.43%
22.58
8.1%
12.34
7.42%
13.48
4.52%
22.11
2.07%
48.32
0.76%
132.01
2
4.34%
23.04
7.94%
12.59
7.27%
13.76
4.43%
22.56
2.03%
49.3
0.74%
134.72
3
2.84%
35.27
5.19%
19.27
4.75%
21.06
2.9%
34.53
1.33%
75.47
0.48%
206.19
4
1.39%
71.97
2.54%
39.33
2.33%
42.98
1.42%
70.46
0.65%
154.01
0.24%
420.88
5
0.54%
183.59
1.0%
100.33
0.91%
109.65
0.56%
179.76
0.25%
392.93
0.09%
1072.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.62% · Fair: 38.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.91% 14.09%
1.5 58.31% 41.69%
2.5 31.25% 68.75%
3.5 13.57% 86.43%
4.5 4.91% 95.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.96% 16.04%
1.5 54.6% 45.4%
2.5 27.74% 72.26%
3.5 11.36% 88.64%
4.5 3.86% 96.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.26% 44.26
1 8.56% 11.68
2 16.23% 6.16
3 20.50% 4.88
4 19.43% 5.15
5+ 33.02% 3.03
Over 2.5 72.95% Under 2.5 27.05%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.66%
Draw 22.68%
Away Win 35.65%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.95%
Under 2.5 27.05%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.13%
No 27.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.6% 9.44 12.5% 8.0 76.9% 1.3
-1.5 23.1% 4.33 — 76.9% 1.3
-1.0 23.1% 4.33 18.83% 5.31 58.07% 1.72
-0.5 41.93% 2.39 — 58.07% 1.72
0 (PK) 41.93% 2.39 21.28% 4.7 36.79% 2.72
+0.5 63.21% 1.58 — 36.79% 2.72
+1.0 63.21% 1.58 17.58% 5.69 19.21% 5.2
+1.5 80.79% 1.24 — 19.21% 5.2
+2.0 80.79% 1.24 10.9% 9.17 8.31% 12.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.