Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
9.29%
Fair Odds 10.76
Draw
22.34%
Fair Odds 4.48
Away Win
68.36%
Fair Odds 1.46
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 17.63% Fair Odds 5.67

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 10.76 —
Draw 4.48 —
Away Win 1.46 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 17.63% 5.67
2 0-2 16.13% 6.2
3 0-3 9.84% 10.16
4 0-0 9.63% 10.38
5 1-1 8.99% 11.12
6 1-2 8.23% 12.16
7 1-3 5.02% 19.93
8 1-0 4.91% 20.36
9 0-4 4.5% 22.22
10 1-4 2.3% 43.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.63%
10.38
17.63%
5.67
16.13%
6.2
9.84%
10.16
4.5%
22.22
1.65%
60.7
1
4.91%
20.36
8.99%
11.12
8.23%
12.16
5.02%
19.93
2.3%
43.56
0.84%
119.02
2
1.25%
79.83
2.29%
43.62
2.1%
47.67
1.28%
78.15
0.59%
170.82
0.21%
466.64
3
0.21%
469.48
0.39%
256.61
0.36%
280.43
0.22%
459.77
0.1%
1005.03
0.04%
2747.25
4
0.03%
3676.47
0.05%
2012.07
0.05%
2197.8
0.03%
3610.11
0.01%
7874.02
0.0%
21739.13
5
0.0%
35714.29
0.01%
19607.84
0.0%
21739.13
0.0%
35714.29
0.0%
76923.08
0.0%
200000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.12% · Fair: 89.34
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 39.95% 60.05%
1.5 9.33% 90.67%
2.5 1.52% 98.48%
3.5 0.19% 99.81%
4.5 0.02% 99.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.96% 16.04%
1.5 54.6% 45.4%
2.5 27.74% 72.26%
3.5 11.36% 88.64%
4.5 3.86% 96.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.63% 10.38
1 22.54% 4.44
2 26.37% 3.79
3 20.57% 4.86
4 12.03% 8.31
5+ 8.85% 11.30
Over 2.5 41.45% Under 2.5 58.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 9.29%
Draw 22.34%
Away Win 68.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.45%
Under 2.5 58.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 33.54%
No 66.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.3% 329.28 1.69% 59.14 98.01% 1.02
-1.5 1.99% 50.14 — 98.01% 1.02
-1.0 1.99% 50.14 7.59% 13.17 90.41% 1.11
-0.5 9.59% 10.43 — 90.41% 1.11
0 (PK) 9.59% 10.43 20.95% 4.77 69.46% 1.44
+0.5 30.54% 3.27 — 69.46% 1.44
+1.0 30.54% 3.27 27.24% 3.67 42.22% 2.37
+1.5 57.77% 1.73 — 42.22% 2.37
+2.0 57.77% 1.73 21.77% 4.59 20.45% 4.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.