Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.42%
Fair Odds
2.91
Draw
23.72%
Fair Odds
4.22
Away Win
41.86%
Fair Odds
2.39
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.31%
Fair Odds 10.74
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.91 | — | |
| Draw | 4.22 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.39 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 9.31% | 10.74 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 8.47% | 11.81 |
| 3 | 2-1 | 7.73% | 12.94 |
| 4 | 2-2 | 7.03% | 14.22 |
| 5 | 0-1 | 5.61% | 17.83 |
| 6 | 1-3 | 5.14% | 19.46 |
| 7 | 1-0 | 5.11% | 19.55 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 5.1% | 19.6 |
| 9 | 3-1 | 4.27% | 23.39 |
| 10 | 2-3 | 4.26% | 23.45 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.08%
32.46
|
5.61%
17.83
|
5.1%
19.6
|
3.1%
32.31
|
1.41%
71.0
|
0.51%
195.05
|
| 1 |
5.11%
19.55
|
9.31%
10.74
|
8.47%
11.81
|
5.14%
19.46
|
2.34%
42.77
|
0.85%
117.51
|
| 2 |
4.24%
23.56
|
7.73%
12.94
|
7.03%
14.22
|
4.26%
23.45
|
1.94%
51.53
|
0.71%
141.58
|
| 3 |
2.35%
42.58
|
4.27%
23.39
|
3.89%
25.71
|
2.36%
42.37
|
1.07%
93.13
|
0.39%
255.89
|
| 4 |
0.97%
102.6
|
1.77%
56.37
|
1.61%
61.95
|
0.98%
102.1
|
0.45%
224.42
|
0.16%
616.52
|
| 5 |
0.32%
309.02
|
0.59%
169.78
|
0.54%
186.57
|
0.33%
307.6
|
0.15%
676.13
|
0.05%
1855.29
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
1.8%
·
Fair:
55.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80.99% | 19.01% |
| 1.5 | 49.42% | 50.58% |
| 2.5 | 23.23% | 76.77% |
| 3.5 | 8.73% | 91.27% |
| 4.5 | 2.71% | 97.29% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 1.5 | 54.31% | 45.69% |
| 2.5 | 27.47% | 72.53% |
| 3.5 | 11.19% | 88.81% |
| 4.5 | 3.79% | 96.21% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.08% | 32.46 |
| 1 | 10.72% | 9.33 |
| 2 | 18.65% | 5.36 |
| 3 | 21.64% | 4.62 |
| 4 | 18.83% | 5.31 |
| 5+ | 27.08% | 3.69 |
|
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
34.42%
Draw
23.72%
Away Win
41.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.54%
Under 2.5
32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
67.86%
No
32.14%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 7.2% 13.9 | 10.5% 9.52 | 82.3% 1.22 |
| -1.5 | 17.7% 5.65 | — | 82.3% 1.22 |
| -1.0 | 17.7% 5.65 | 17.87% 5.6 | 64.43% 1.55 |
| -0.5 | 35.57% 2.81 | — | 64.43% 1.55 |
| 0 (PK) | 35.57% 2.81 | 22.28% 4.49 | 42.15% 2.37 |
| +0.5 | 57.85% 1.73 | — | 42.15% 2.37 |
| +1.0 | 57.85% 1.73 | 19.6% 5.1 | 22.55% 4.43 |
| +1.5 | 77.45% 1.29 | — | 22.55% 4.43 |
| +2.0 | 77.45% 1.29 | 12.63% 7.92 | 9.92% 10.08 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
