Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.99%
Fair Odds 2.94
Draw
23.77%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
42.24%
Fair Odds 2.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.38% Fair Odds 10.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.94 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.38% 10.66
2 1-2 8.54% 11.71
3 2-1 7.69% 13.0
4 2-2 7.0% 14.29
5 0-1 5.72% 17.48
6 0-2 5.21% 19.21
7 1-3 5.18% 19.31
8 1-0 5.15% 19.4
9 2-3 4.25% 23.55
10 2-0 4.23% 23.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.14%
31.82
5.72%
17.48
5.21%
19.21
3.16%
31.67
1.44%
69.59
0.52%
191.2
1
5.15%
19.4
9.38%
10.66
8.54%
11.71
5.18%
19.31
2.36%
42.44
0.86%
116.58
2
4.23%
23.66
7.69%
13.0
7.0%
14.29
4.25%
23.55
1.93%
51.75
0.7%
142.17
3
2.31%
43.28
4.21%
23.78
3.83%
26.13
2.32%
43.07
1.06%
94.67
0.38%
260.08
4
0.95%
105.56
1.72%
58.0
1.57%
63.73
0.95%
105.05
0.43%
230.89
0.16%
634.52
5
0.31%
321.85
0.57%
176.83
0.51%
194.33
0.31%
320.31
0.14%
703.73
0.05%
1934.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.76% · Fair: 56.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.8% 16.2%
1.5 54.31% 45.69%
2.5 27.47% 72.53%
3.5 11.19% 88.81%
4.5 3.79% 96.21%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.14% 31.82
1 10.87% 9.20
2 18.81% 5.32
3 21.70% 4.61
4 18.77% 5.33
5+ 26.70% 3.75
Over 2.5 67.17% Under 2.5 32.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.99%
Draw 23.77%
Away Win 42.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.17%
Under 2.5 32.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.54%
No 32.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.99% 14.31 10.36% 9.66 82.66% 1.21
-1.5 17.34% 5.77 — 82.66% 1.21
-1.0 17.34% 5.77 17.78% 5.62 64.87% 1.54
-0.5 35.13% 2.85 — 64.87% 1.54
0 (PK) 35.13% 2.85 22.34% 4.48 42.54% 2.35
+0.5 57.46% 1.74 — 42.54% 2.35
+1.0 57.46% 1.74 19.73% 5.07 22.8% 4.39
+1.5 77.2% 1.3 — 22.8% 4.39
+2.0 77.2% 1.3 12.75% 7.84 10.05% 9.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.