Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.28%
Fair Odds 3.54
Draw
24.3%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
47.42%
Fair Odds 2.11
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.24% Fair Odds 9.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.54 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 2.11 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.24% 9.77
2 1-2 9.32% 10.73
3 0-1 7.42% 13.48
4 2-1 7.06% 14.16
5 0-2 6.75% 14.81
6 2-2 6.43% 15.56
7 1-3 5.65% 17.69
8 1-0 5.63% 17.78
9 0-3 4.1% 24.42
10 0-0 4.08% 24.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.08%
24.53
7.42%
13.48
6.75%
14.81
4.1%
24.42
1.86%
53.66
0.68%
147.43
1
5.63%
17.78
10.24%
9.77
9.32%
10.73
5.65%
17.69
2.57%
38.88
0.94%
106.83
2
3.88%
25.76
7.06%
14.16
6.43%
15.56
3.9%
25.64
1.77%
56.36
0.65%
154.82
3
1.79%
56.01
3.25%
30.77
2.96%
33.82
1.79%
55.74
0.82%
122.52
0.3%
336.59
4
0.62%
162.34
1.12%
89.2
1.02%
98.02
0.62%
161.58
0.28%
355.11
0.1%
975.61
5
0.17%
588.24
0.31%
323.21
0.28%
355.11
0.17%
585.48
0.08%
1287.0
0.03%
3533.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.39% · Fair: 72.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.8% 16.2%
1.5 54.31% 45.69%
2.5 27.47% 72.53%
3.5 11.19% 88.81%
4.5 3.79% 96.21%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.08% 24.53
1 13.04% 7.67
2 20.87% 4.79
3 22.26% 4.49
4 17.81% 5.62
5+ 21.94% 4.56
Over 2.5 62.01% Under 2.5 37.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.28%
Draw 24.30%
Away Win 47.42%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.01%
Under 2.5 37.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.72%
No 37.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.55% 21.96 8.34% 11.99 87.11% 1.15
-1.5 12.89% 7.76 — 87.11% 1.15
-1.0 12.89% 7.76 16.35% 6.12 70.76% 1.41
-0.5 29.24% 3.42 — 70.76% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.24% 3.42 22.85% 4.38 47.91% 2.09
+0.5 52.09% 1.92 — 47.91% 2.09
+1.0 52.09% 1.92 21.56% 4.64 26.34% 3.8
+1.5 73.66% 1.36 — 26.34% 3.8
+2.0 73.66% 1.36 14.51% 6.89 11.84% 8.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.