Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.81%
Fair Odds 2.87
Draw
23.73%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
41.46%
Fair Odds 2.41
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.31% Fair Odds 10.74

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.87 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.31% 10.74
2 1-2 8.43% 11.87
3 2-1 7.78% 12.86
4 2-2 7.04% 14.21
5 0-1 5.58% 17.93
6 1-0 5.14% 19.44
7 1-3 5.08% 19.67
8 0-2 5.05% 19.82
9 3-1 4.33% 23.1
10 2-0 4.3% 23.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.58%
17.93
5.05%
19.82
3.04%
32.84
1.38%
72.58
0.5%
200.52
1
5.14%
19.44
9.31%
10.74
8.43%
11.87
5.08%
19.67
2.3%
43.46
0.83%
120.06
2
4.3%
23.28
7.78%
12.86
7.04%
14.21
4.25%
23.55
1.92%
52.05
0.7%
143.78
3
2.39%
41.82
4.33%
23.1
3.92%
25.53
2.36%
42.31
1.07%
93.51
0.39%
258.33
4
1.0%
100.16
1.81%
55.34
1.64%
61.14
0.99%
101.35
0.45%
223.96
0.16%
618.81
5
0.33%
299.85
0.6%
165.67
0.55%
183.08
0.33%
303.4
0.15%
670.69
0.05%
1851.85
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.79% · Fair: 55.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.81%
Draw 23.73%
Away Win 41.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.89%
No 32.11%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.35% 13.61 10.63% 9.4 82.02% 1.22
-1.5 17.98% 5.56 — 82.02% 1.22
-1.0 17.98% 5.56 17.99% 5.56 64.03% 1.56
-0.5 35.97% 2.78 — 64.03% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.97% 2.78 22.3% 4.48 41.73% 2.4
+0.5 58.27% 1.72 — 41.73% 2.4
+1.0 58.27% 1.72 19.5% 5.13 22.23% 4.5
+1.5 77.77% 1.29 — 22.23% 4.5
+2.0 77.77% 1.29 12.49% 8.0 9.74% 10.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.