Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.65%
Fair Odds 3.26
Draw
24.2%
Fair Odds 4.13
Away Win
45.16%
Fair Odds 2.21
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.98% Fair Odds 10.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.26 —
Draw 4.13 —
Away Win 2.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.98% 10.02
2 1-2 9.03% 11.07
3 2-1 7.38% 13.54
4 0-1 6.74% 14.83
5 2-2 6.68% 14.96
6 0-2 6.1% 16.39
7 1-0 5.51% 18.14
8 1-3 5.45% 18.35
9 2-0 4.08% 24.51
10 2-3 4.03% 24.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.73%
26.84
6.74%
14.83
6.1%
16.39
3.68%
27.16
1.67%
60.02
0.6%
165.81
1
5.51%
18.14
9.98%
10.02
9.03%
11.07
5.45%
18.35
2.47%
40.56
0.89%
112.03
2
4.08%
24.51
7.38%
13.54
6.68%
14.96
4.03%
24.8
1.82%
54.81
0.66%
151.4
3
2.01%
49.68
3.64%
27.45
3.3%
30.33
1.99%
50.27
0.9%
111.1
0.33%
306.84
4
0.74%
134.28
1.35%
74.18
1.22%
81.97
0.74%
135.87
0.33%
300.21
0.12%
829.19
5
0.22%
453.72
0.4%
250.63
0.36%
276.93
0.22%
458.93
0.1%
1014.2
0.04%
2801.12
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.48% · Fair: 67.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.73% 26.84
1 12.26% 8.16
2 20.16% 4.96
3 22.11% 4.52
4 18.19% 5.50
5+ 23.56% 4.24
Over 2.5 63.86% Under 2.5 36.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.65%
Draw 24.20%
Away Win 45.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.86%
Under 2.5 36.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.6%
No 35.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.46% 18.3 9.19% 10.88 85.35% 1.17
-1.5 14.65% 6.83 — 85.35% 1.17
-1.0 14.65% 6.83 17.04% 5.87 68.31% 1.46
-0.5 31.69% 3.16 — 68.31% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.69% 3.16 22.75% 4.4 45.56% 2.19
+0.5 54.44% 1.84 — 45.56% 2.19
+1.0 54.44% 1.84 20.84% 4.8 24.72% 4.05
+1.5 75.28% 1.33 — 24.72% 4.05
+2.0 75.28% 1.33 13.74% 7.28 10.98% 9.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.