Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.1%
Fair Odds 3.69
Draw
24.44%
Fair Odds 4.09
Away Win
48.46%
Fair Odds 2.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.45% Fair Odds 9.57

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.69 —
Draw 4.09 —
Away Win 2.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.45% 9.57
2 1-2 9.45% 10.58
3 0-1 7.91% 12.64
4 0-2 7.16% 13.96
5 2-1 6.89% 14.51
6 2-2 6.24% 16.03
7 1-0 5.77% 17.33
8 1-3 5.7% 17.53
9 0-0 4.37% 22.87
10 0-3 4.32% 23.14
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
7.91%
12.64
7.16%
13.96
4.32%
23.14
1.96%
51.15
0.71%
141.3
1
5.77%
17.33
10.45%
9.57
9.45%
10.58
5.7%
17.53
2.58%
38.75
0.93%
107.04
2
3.81%
26.26
6.89%
14.51
6.24%
16.03
3.76%
26.57
1.7%
58.71
0.62%
162.18
3
1.68%
59.67
3.03%
32.97
2.75%
36.43
1.66%
60.38
0.75%
133.44
0.27%
368.6
4
0.55%
180.83
1.0%
99.9
0.91%
110.39
0.55%
182.98
0.25%
404.37
0.09%
1117.32
5
0.15%
684.93
0.26%
378.36
0.24%
418.06
0.14%
693.0
0.07%
1531.39
0.02%
4237.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.3% · Fair: 76.83
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.41% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.10%
Draw 24.44%
Away Win 48.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.29%
No 38.71%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.1% 24.41 7.91% 12.65 88.0% 1.14
-1.5 12.0% 8.33 — 88.0% 1.14
-1.0 12.0% 8.33 16.03% 6.24 71.97% 1.39
-0.5 28.03% 3.57 — 71.97% 1.39
0 (PK) 28.03% 3.57 22.98% 4.35 48.98% 2.04
+0.5 51.02% 1.96 — 48.98% 2.04
+1.0 51.02% 1.96 21.98% 4.55 27.01% 3.7
+1.5 72.99% 1.37 — 27.01% 3.7
+2.0 72.99% 1.37 14.87% 6.73 12.14% 8.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.