Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.25%
Fair Odds 3.2
Draw
24.22%
Fair Odds 4.13
Away Win
44.53%
Fair Odds 2.25
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.96% Fair Odds 10.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.2 —
Draw 4.13 —
Away Win 2.25 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.96% 10.04
2 1-2 8.96% 11.16
3 2-1 7.47% 13.39
4 2-2 6.72% 14.88
5 0-1 6.64% 15.06
6 0-2 5.98% 16.74
7 1-0 5.53% 18.08
8 1-3 5.38% 18.6
9 2-0 4.15% 24.1
10 2-3 4.03% 24.79
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
6.64%
15.06
5.98%
16.74
3.59%
27.89
1.61%
61.98
0.58%
172.18
1
5.53%
18.08
9.96%
10.04
8.96%
11.16
5.38%
18.6
2.42%
41.32
0.87%
114.78
2
4.15%
24.1
7.47%
13.39
6.72%
14.88
4.03%
24.79
1.81%
55.1
0.65%
153.05
3
2.07%
48.2
3.73%
26.78
3.36%
29.75
2.02%
49.59
0.91%
110.19
0.33%
306.09
4
0.78%
128.53
1.4%
71.41
1.26%
79.34
0.76%
132.24
0.34%
293.86
0.12%
816.33
5
0.23%
428.45
0.42%
238.04
0.38%
264.48
0.23%
440.72
0.1%
979.43
0.04%
2717.39
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.48% · Fair: 67.65
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.25%
Draw 24.22%
Away Win 44.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.85%
No 35.15%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.69% 17.58 9.4% 10.64 84.91% 1.18
-1.5 15.09% 6.63 — 84.91% 1.18
-1.0 15.09% 6.63 17.23% 5.8 67.68% 1.48
-0.5 32.32% 3.09 — 67.68% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.32% 3.09 22.77% 4.39 44.92% 2.23
+0.5 55.08% 1.82 — 44.92% 2.23
+1.0 55.08% 1.82 20.68% 4.84 24.24% 4.13
+1.5 75.76% 1.32 — 24.24% 4.13
+2.0 75.76% 1.32 13.53% 7.39 10.71% 9.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.