Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.24%
Fair Odds 3.96
Draw
24.59%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
50.18%
Fair Odds 1.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.7% Fair Odds 9.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.96 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 1.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.7% 9.35
2 1-2 9.63% 10.39
3 0-1 8.7% 11.5
4 0-2 7.83% 12.78
5 2-1 6.58% 15.2
6 1-0 5.94% 16.83
7 2-2 5.92% 16.89
8 1-3 5.78% 17.31
9 0-0 4.83% 20.7
10 0-3 4.7% 21.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
8.7%
11.5
7.83%
12.78
4.7%
21.29
2.11%
47.32
0.76%
131.44
1
5.94%
16.83
10.7%
9.35
9.63%
10.39
5.78%
17.31
2.6%
38.47
0.94%
106.86
2
3.65%
27.36
6.58%
15.2
5.92%
16.89
3.55%
28.15
1.6%
62.55
0.58%
173.76
3
1.5%
66.73
2.7%
37.07
2.43%
41.19
1.46%
68.66
0.66%
152.58
0.24%
423.73
4
0.46%
217.01
0.83%
120.57
0.75%
133.96
0.45%
223.26
0.2%
496.28
0.07%
1377.41
5
0.11%
881.83
0.2%
490.2
0.18%
544.66
0.11%
907.44
0.05%
2016.13
0.02%
5617.98
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.21% · Fair: 82.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.24%
Draw 24.59%
Away Win 50.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.07%
No 40.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.44% 29.04 7.22% 13.85 89.34% 1.12
-1.5 10.66% 9.38 — 89.34% 1.12
-1.0 10.66% 9.38 15.45% 6.47 73.89% 1.35
-0.5 26.11% 3.83 — 73.89% 1.35
0 (PK) 26.11% 3.83 23.13% 4.32 50.76% 1.97
+0.5 49.24% 2.03 — 50.76% 1.97
+1.0 49.24% 2.03 22.61% 4.42 28.15% 3.55
+1.5 71.85% 1.39 — 28.15% 3.55
+2.0 71.85% 1.39 15.46% 6.47 12.69% 7.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.