Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.66%
Fair Odds 4.62
Draw
24.58%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
53.76%
Fair Odds 1.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.92% Fair Odds 9.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.62 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 1.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.92% 9.16
2 0-1 10.21% 9.8
3 1-2 9.83% 10.17
4 0-2 9.19% 10.89
5 1-0 6.07% 16.48
6 1-3 5.9% 16.96
7 2-1 5.84% 17.12
8 0-0 5.67% 17.64
9 0-3 5.51% 18.14
10 2-2 5.26% 19.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.67%
17.64
10.21%
9.8
9.19%
10.89
5.51%
18.14
2.48%
40.32
0.89%
112.01
1
6.07%
16.48
10.92%
9.16
9.83%
10.17
5.9%
16.96
2.65%
37.68
0.96%
104.68
2
3.25%
30.81
5.84%
17.12
5.26%
19.02
3.15%
31.7
1.42%
70.44
0.51%
195.66
3
1.16%
86.39
2.08%
47.99
1.88%
53.32
1.13%
88.87
0.51%
197.47
0.18%
548.55
4
0.31%
322.89
0.56%
179.4
0.5%
199.32
0.3%
332.23
0.14%
738.55
0.05%
2049.18
5
0.07%
1508.3
0.12%
838.22
0.11%
931.1
0.06%
1552.8
0.03%
3448.28
0.01%
9615.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.12% · Fair: 89.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.67% 17.64
1 16.27% 6.15
2 23.35% 4.28
3 22.34% 4.48
4 16.03% 6.24
5+ 16.34% 6.12
Over 2.5 54.71% Under 2.5 45.29%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.66%
Draw 24.58%
Away Win 53.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.71%
Under 2.5 45.29%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.84%
No 45.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.39% 41.78 5.9% 16.95 91.71% 1.09
-1.5 8.29% 12.06 — 91.71% 1.09
-1.0 8.29% 12.06 14.12% 7.08 77.59% 1.29
-0.5 22.41% 4.46 — 77.59% 1.29
0 (PK) 22.41% 4.46 23.12% 4.33 54.47% 1.84
+0.5 45.53% 2.2 — 54.47% 1.84
+1.0 45.53% 2.2 23.75% 4.21 30.72% 3.26
+1.5 69.28% 1.44 — 30.72% 3.26
+2.0 69.28% 1.44 16.7% 5.99 14.02% 7.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.