Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.85%
Fair Odds 2.71
Draw
23.64%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
39.51%
Fair Odds 2.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.17% Fair Odds 10.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.71 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 2.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.17% 10.91
2 1-2 8.16% 12.26
3 2-1 7.98% 12.54
4 2-2 7.1% 14.09
5 0-1 5.27% 18.98
6 1-0 5.15% 19.42
7 1-3 4.84% 20.66
8 0-2 4.69% 21.33
9 3-1 4.63% 21.62
10 2-0 4.48% 22.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.96%
33.78
5.27%
18.98
4.69%
21.33
2.78%
35.94
1.24%
80.77
0.44%
226.86
1
5.15%
19.42
9.17%
10.91
8.16%
12.26
4.84%
20.66
2.15%
46.42
0.77%
130.4
2
4.48%
22.32
7.98%
12.54
7.1%
14.09
4.21%
23.74
1.87%
53.36
0.67%
149.88
3
2.6%
38.48
4.63%
21.62
4.12%
24.29
2.44%
40.94
1.09%
91.99
0.39%
258.4
4
1.13%
88.46
2.01%
49.69
1.79%
55.84
1.06%
94.11
0.47%
211.46
0.17%
594.18
5
0.39%
254.19
0.7%
142.8
0.62%
160.46
0.37%
270.42
0.16%
607.53
0.06%
1706.48
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.87% · Fair: 53.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.45% 17.55%
1.5 51.91% 48.09%
2.5 25.34% 74.66%
3.5 9.93% 90.07%
4.5 3.22% 96.78%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.96% 33.78
1 10.42% 9.60
2 18.34% 5.45
3 21.52% 4.65
4 18.93% 5.28
5+ 27.83% 3.59
Over 2.5 68.28% Under 2.5 31.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.85%
Draw 23.64%
Away Win 39.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.28%
Under 2.5 31.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.54%
No 31.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.27% 12.09 11.32% 8.83 80.41% 1.24
-1.5 19.59% 5.1 — 80.41% 1.24
-1.0 19.59% 5.1 18.49% 5.41 61.92% 1.61
-0.5 38.08% 2.63 — 61.92% 1.61
0 (PK) 38.08% 2.63 22.21% 4.5 39.72% 2.52
+0.5 60.28% 1.66 — 39.72% 2.52
+1.0 60.28% 1.66 18.91% 5.29 20.8% 4.81
+1.5 79.2% 1.26 — 20.8% 4.81
+2.0 79.2% 1.26 11.85% 8.44 8.96% 11.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.