Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.02%
Fair Odds 3.12
Draw
24.28%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
43.69%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.98% Fair Odds 10.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.12 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.98% 10.02
2 1-2 8.88% 11.26
3 2-1 7.58% 13.19
4 2-2 6.75% 14.82
5 0-1 6.57% 15.23
6 0-2 5.84% 17.11
7 1-0 5.61% 17.84
8 1-3 5.27% 18.98
9 2-0 4.26% 23.47
10 2-3 4.0% 24.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
6.57%
15.23
5.84%
17.11
3.47%
28.84
1.54%
64.82
0.55%
182.08
1
5.61%
17.84
9.98%
10.02
8.88%
11.26
5.27%
18.98
2.34%
42.64
0.83%
119.79
2
4.26%
23.47
7.58%
13.19
6.75%
14.82
4.0%
24.97
1.78%
56.11
0.63%
157.6
3
2.16%
46.32
3.84%
26.02
3.42%
29.24
2.03%
49.28
0.9%
110.74
0.32%
311.04
4
0.82%
121.91
1.46%
68.48
1.3%
76.95
0.77%
129.68
0.34%
291.46
0.12%
818.33
5
0.25%
400.96
0.44%
225.28
0.4%
253.1
0.23%
426.62
0.1%
958.77
0.04%
2695.42
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.46% · Fair: 68.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.02%
Draw 24.28%
Away Win 43.69%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.95%
No 35.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.96% 16.78 9.67% 10.35 84.37% 1.19
-1.5 15.63% 6.4 — 84.37% 1.19
-1.0 15.63% 6.4 17.5% 5.72 66.88% 1.5
-0.5 33.12% 3.02 — 66.88% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.12% 3.02 22.83% 4.38 44.05% 2.27
+0.5 55.95% 1.79 — 44.05% 2.27
+1.0 55.95% 1.79 20.49% 4.88 23.56% 4.24
+1.5 76.44% 1.31 — 23.56% 4.24
+2.0 76.44% 1.31 13.26% 7.54 10.3% 9.7

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.