Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.57%
Fair Odds 3.38
Draw
24.51%
Fair Odds 4.08
Away Win
45.91%
Fair Odds 2.18
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.33% Fair Odds 9.68

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.38 —
Draw 4.08 —
Away Win 2.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.33% 9.68
2 1-2 9.2% 10.87
3 0-1 7.33% 13.65
4 2-1 7.29% 13.73
5 0-2 6.52% 15.33
6 2-2 6.48% 15.42
7 1-0 5.81% 17.23
8 1-3 5.46% 18.33
9 0-0 4.12% 24.29
10 2-0 4.09% 24.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.12%
24.29
7.33%
13.65
6.52%
15.33
3.87%
25.84
1.72%
58.07
0.61%
163.11
1
5.81%
17.23
10.33%
9.68
9.2%
10.87
5.46%
18.33
2.43%
41.18
0.86%
115.69
2
4.09%
24.43
7.29%
13.73
6.48%
15.42
3.85%
25.99
1.71%
58.41
0.61%
164.1
3
1.92%
51.99
3.42%
29.21
3.05%
32.82
1.81%
55.31
0.8%
124.29
0.29%
349.16
4
0.68%
147.47
1.21%
82.86
1.07%
93.09
0.64%
156.91
0.28%
352.61
0.1%
990.1
5
0.19%
523.01
0.34%
293.77
0.3%
330.14
0.18%
556.48
0.08%
1250.0
0.03%
3508.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.31% · Fair: 76.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.12% 24.29
1 13.13% 7.61
2 20.95% 4.77
3 22.28% 4.49
4 17.76% 5.63
5+ 21.76% 4.60
Over 2.5 61.8% Under 2.5 38.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.57%
Draw 24.51%
Away Win 45.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.8%
Under 2.5 38.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.84%
No 37.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.94% 20.23 8.79% 11.38 86.26% 1.16
-1.5 13.73% 7.28 — 86.26% 1.16
-1.0 13.73% 7.28 16.86% 5.93 69.4% 1.44
-0.5 30.6% 3.27 — 69.4% 1.44
0 (PK) 30.6% 3.27 23.06% 4.34 46.35% 2.16
+0.5 53.65% 1.86 — 46.35% 2.16
+1.0 53.65% 1.86 21.29% 4.7 25.06% 3.99
+1.5 74.94% 1.33 — 25.06% 3.99
+2.0 74.94% 1.33 14.01% 7.14 11.05% 9.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.