Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.28%
Fair Odds 4.3
Draw
24.78%
Fair Odds 4.04
Away Win
51.94%
Fair Odds 1.93
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.96% Fair Odds 9.13

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.3 —
Draw 4.04 —
Away Win 1.93 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.96% 9.13
2 1-2 9.75% 10.25
3 0-1 9.7% 10.31
4 0-2 8.63% 11.59
5 2-1 6.19% 16.15
6 1-0 6.16% 16.24
7 1-3 5.79% 17.28
8 2-2 5.51% 18.15
9 0-0 5.45% 18.36
10 0-3 5.12% 19.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.45%
18.36
9.7%
10.31
8.63%
11.59
5.12%
19.53
2.28%
43.89
0.81%
123.27
1
6.16%
16.24
10.96%
9.13
9.75%
10.25
5.79%
17.28
2.57%
38.84
0.92%
109.1
2
3.48%
28.75
6.19%
16.15
5.51%
18.15
3.27%
30.59
1.45%
68.74
0.52%
193.09
3
1.31%
76.33
2.33%
42.88
2.08%
48.18
1.23%
81.21
0.55%
182.48
0.2%
512.56
4
0.37%
270.2
0.66%
151.79
0.59%
170.56
0.35%
287.44
0.15%
645.99
0.06%
1814.88
5
0.08%
1196.17
0.15%
671.59
0.13%
754.72
0.08%
1272.26
0.03%
2857.14
0.01%
8000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.1% · Fair: 91.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.45% 18.36
1 15.85% 6.31
2 23.07% 4.34
3 22.37% 4.47
4 16.28% 6.14
5+ 16.98% 5.89
Over 2.5 55.63% Under 2.5 44.37%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.28%
Draw 24.78%
Away Win 51.94%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.63%
Under 2.5 44.37%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.28%
No 43.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.8% 35.66 6.48% 15.43 90.71% 1.1
-1.5 9.29% 10.77 — 90.71% 1.1
-1.0 9.29% 10.77 14.81% 6.75 75.91% 1.32
-0.5 24.09% 4.15 — 75.91% 1.32
0 (PK) 24.09% 4.15 23.31% 4.29 52.59% 1.9
+0.5 47.41% 2.11 — 52.59% 1.9
+1.0 47.41% 2.11 23.32% 4.29 29.27% 3.42
+1.5 70.73% 1.41 — 29.27% 3.42
+2.0 70.73% 1.41 16.08% 6.22 13.18% 7.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.